On June 26, 2009, Atlas Hospitality released the results of its study on foreclosures in California We think these results have much broader implications for the hotel industry on a national basis. Here is the latest.

I have now had time to settle in and digest the latest June 2009, Realpoint Research report on CMBS loan delinquencies. The numbers paint a very serious and dramatic picture. A copy of the full report is attached, with my personal highlights to point out some facts I thought were particularly significant. Let me know if you would prefer a clean copy without my highlighting and lines, and I will email you a "clean" copy.

The Realpoint research is directed solely to CMBS delinquencies, but we think distress in this sector (roughly one third of all commercial real estate loans) is representative of stress that will be experienced in at least another third of the CRE loans made by commercial banks, if not all CRE loans.

So what does this all mean? Here are my thoughts.

On June 24, 2009 the Federal Reserve left interest rates and its policies unchanged. Government forecasters predicted that unemployment will continue to rise from its already high level of 9.4% and will not begin a reverse trend until "some time next year." And today in CNBC and Bloomberg interviews, Warren Buffett said he sees unemployment continuing to rise. He does not seem to see "green shoots" of economic recovery in the United States.

Unfortunately this is all consistent with a much delayed recovery for the hotel industry, likely in 2011 or beyond. In today's Bloomberg article, Morgan Stanley analysts are quoted as saying "The hotel loan delinquency rate is currently 4.7 percent and is likely to reach 8.2 percent -- the peak rate in the 2001 economic downturn -- by the end of the year."

Here is some more information on the continuing crisis in the hospitality industry.

Mark Woodworth and his colleagues at PKF Hospitality Research have released PKF's latest report on the U.S. lodging industry, it's turning points and prospects. I thought you might find it useful as you consider options for dealing with troubled hotel assets, and hope you will keep us in mind as you face coming challenges.

One of my favorite presentations at the NYU hotel investment conference earlier this month was by Steve Rushmore, president and founder of HVS. His entire slides show is worth studying and you can view it in its entirety by clicking on the link at the end of this article.

But a few of the slides particularly caught my attention -- the ones on hotel values -- when they bottom, when they recover, best and worst markets for the next few years, and along with some good advice for buyers, lenders and owners.

JMBM hospitality lawyer Jim Abrams has been practicing law for 40 years, specializing in lodging and hospitality law and in representing and advising trade associations and other non-profit entities. Jim is the author of the book Laws Pertaining to the California Innkeeper, which is published by the California Hotel & Lodging Association.

Earlier this week, we gave you our initial take on the NYU hotel conference. Now here are some of the things we heard that we thought worthy of note.

The NYU Hotel Investment Conference is the grand daddy of them all -- Stephen Brener would be proud if he were alive today to see what his vision had blossomed into. And as much as I love our Meet the Money®, and the Phoenix Lodging Conference, this is the greatest hotel investment conference in the country. It is the place you have to be if you are in the industry and doing business.

The Conference kicked off tonight with its Grand Reception at the Waldorf=Astoria with the Who's Who of the industry present, and here is what we see.

03 June 2009

Hospitality Lawyer Insights from Meet the Money® 2009: The hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® have presented an annual hotel conference for 19 years. On May 5-7, 2009 in Los Angeles, California, nearly 400 industry leaders gathered at the Sheraton LAX for Meet the Money® 2009.

03 June 2009

Hospitality Lawyer Insights from Meet the Money® 2009: The hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® have presented an annual hotel conference for 19 years. On May 5-7, 2009 in Los Angeles, California, nearly 400 industry leaders gathered at the Sheraton LAX for Meet the Money® 2009.

What is one of the nicest acknowledgements of professional accomplishment a hotel lawyer might receive? In my book, being recognized by the New York Times as an expert in a core aspect of my legal and advisory practice is pretty close, and that is what happened yesterday in a Times article by Jonathan D. Glater about the increased friction between hotel owners and operators now erupting into litigation in the case of the Four Seasons Aviara and the Fairmont Turnberry.

As I said in another New York Times quote last month by Martha C. White, we are facing the prospect of hotel bankruptcies and foreclosures reaching levels not seen since the last big downturn of the 1990s.

And indeed, it is in difficult times like these when hotels fail to meet debt service -- or even operating expenses -- that owners and lenders become very frustrated with operators that prefer their own interests to those of the hotel. And that is why Jonathan Glater's article was looking at two high profile emerging battles where owners are standing up to operators and saying, "I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore."

Here's how we see it.

27 May 2009

Hospitality Lawyer Insights from Meet the Money® 2009: The hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® have presented an annual hotel conference for 19 years. On May 5-7, 2009 in Los Angeles, California, nearly 400 industry leaders gathered at the Sheraton LAX for Meet the Money® 2009.

26 May 2009

Hospitality Lawyer Insights from Meet the Money® 2009: The hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® have presented an annual hotel conference for 19 years. On May 5-7, 2009 in Los Angeles, California, nearly 400 industry leaders gathered at the Sheraton LAX for Meet the Money® 2009.

22 May 2009

Hospitality Lawyer Insights from Meet the Money® 2009: The hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® have presented an annual hotel conference for 19 years. On May 5-7, 2009 in Los Angeles, California, nearly 400 industry leaders gathered at the Sheraton LAX for Meet the Money® 2009.

21 May 2009

Hospitality Lawyer Insights from Meet the Money® 2009: The hospitality lawyers of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® have presented an annual hotel conference for 19 years. On May 5-7, 2009 in Los Angeles, California, nearly 400 industry leaders gathered at the Sheraton LAX for Meet the Money® 2009.