17 March 2009
Hotel bankruptcies, restructurings, and receiverships are likely to increase substantially before things get better. That’s the conclusion the hotel lawyers at JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® reach with new data released by Moody’s Economy.com and new projections from PKF Research.
Here are the headlines
The data is not pretty, but here’s a quick summary:
PKF Research is continuing to revise its forecast for lodging recovery. It’s no surprise that the revised projections show that the pain will get deeper, and last longer, with recovery pushed out even further.
Based on continuing revised data on the U.S. economy from Moody’s Economy.com, PKF Research is now saying that lodging recovery (i.e. quarter-over-quarter improvement) does not even BEGIN until the first quarter of 2011.
Here is how PKF Research now sees 2009 unfolding.
The pain will be felt unevenly. The average decline in RevPAR for the US lodging markets will be a punishing -13.7 percent. But Charlotte, Miami, Phoenix, and New York are forecast to suffer declines ranging from -18.7 percent 2-26.1 percent.
It will be interesting to see how this evaluation of fax troubled borrowers’ stamina to hold on, and lenders’ patience to let borrowers ride it out.
PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) said that these forecasts are from their its March 2009 edition of Hotel HorizonsSM. The revised lodging forecast is based on worsening economic projections from Moody’s Economy.com. Hotel HorizonsSM is a quarterly series of reports containing five-year forecasts of performance for the U.S. lodging industry and 50 major markets across the country. The lodging forecasts presented in the March 2009 edition of Hotel HorizonsSM are based on Smith Travel Research (STR) hotel performance data through December 2009 and Moody’s Economy.com’s February 2009 economic forecast for the nation. The latter reflects the expected impact of the recently enacted federal legislation aimed at stimulating the economy.
This is Jim Butler, author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer, signing off. We’ve done more than $87 billion of hotel transactions and more than 100 hotel mixed-used deals in the last 5 years alone. Who’s your hotel lawyer?
________________________
Our Perspective. We represent developers, owners and lenders. We have helped our clients as business and legal advisors on more than $125 billion of hotel transactions, involving more than 4,700 properties all over the world. For more information, please contact Jim Butler at jbutler@jmbm.com or 310.201.3526.
Jim Butler is one of the top hospitality attorneys in the world. GOOGLE “hotel lawyer” or “hotel mixed-use” or “condo hotel lawyer” and you will see why.
Jim devotes 100% of his practice to hospitality, representing hotel owners, developers and lenders. Jim leads JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® — a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $87 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 3,900 properties located around the globe. In the last 5 years alone, Jim and his team have assisted clients with more than 100 hotel mixed-use projects — frequently integrated with energizing lifestyle elements.
Jim and his team are more than “just” great hotel lawyers. They are also hospitality consultants and business advisors. They are deal makers. They can help find the right operator or capital provider. They know who to call and how to reach them.
Contact him at jbutler@jmbm.com or 310.201.3526. For his views on current industry issues, visit www.HotelLawBlog.com.