Recently, a Chinese government delegation visited Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell LLP. The delegation included some of the highest-ranking officials from a top Chinese government agency – “China State Administration of Foreign Exchange” – an agency that directly oversees the investment of $3 trillion of China’s foreign reserve. CONTINUE READING →
19 June, 2018
Meet the Money® is a productive conference with a casual atmosphere; the executives and other hotel industry representatives who attend often speak candidly about their expectations for hotel finance, development and investment throughout the upcoming year.
The short video below highlights how some of our attendees feel about 2018—watch and find out what some of the industry’s most well-known brands, banks, consultants, mangers and developers have to say about what’s on the horizon.
08 May 2018
Today, at Meet the Money® – National Hotel Finance & Investment Conference, Mike Cahill, co-chairman of the Lodging Industry Investment Council (LIIC) and CEO and Founder of HREC Hospitality Real Estate Counselors, presents the annual LIIC Top Ten.
For more than ten years, LIIC, the industry’s preeminent think tank, has surveyed its members to determine challenges and opportunities for the coming year. LIIC’s members represent the direct acquisition and disposition control of more than $40 billion and include industry investors, lenders, corporate real estate executives, REITs, public hotel companies, brokers, and equity sources.
Here is the 2018 LIIC Top Ten
1. Hotel Real Estate – Floating Forward in a Fluid Market
- 2018’s survey results indicate “business as usual”
- Hotel transaction market is fluid; hotels are trading
- Solid hotel debt availability
- Private Equity and Listed REITs predicted to dominate the purchase of Upscale to Luxury hotels
- Small Private Buyers and Regional Owner/Operators predicted to dominate the purchase of Economy to Upper Midscale hotels
2. Trump is Good for Hotel Owners
67% believe Trump’s tax reform bill will positively affect hotel owners
- 41% citing an increase in GDP growth
- 28% citing a correlated increase in business travel
Positive outlook on US economy
- 70% believe the economy will continue to trend upwards in the next 24 months
18 April 2018
It’s almost May, so our annual Meet the Money® Conference is almost here! JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® will host the 28th year of our national hotel finance and investment conference May 7-9, 2018 at the Hyatt Regency LAX.
This must-attend event gives you access to plenty of efficient networking and the latest insights into industry trends and strategies.
The industry’s top hotel owners, developers, operators, brands, investors, lenders, and other capital providers come together every year at Meet the Money to share their expertise and explore opportunities. Our friendly environment makes it easy and comfortable to connect and negotiate deals.
We’re proud to have the participation of distinguished and knowledgeable speakers and sponsors from over 70 of the hotel industry’s top capital sources, brands, investors, developers, and consultants.
15 May 2017
Meet the Money®2017 wrapped up last week at the Hyatt Regency LAX, and looks to be one of our most successful years yet! More than 350 hotel industry leaders gathered to hear from 130+ speakers who gave their expert perspectives on the current hospitality market, the national and global economy, and where trends might take us as we move towards 2018.
The conference will return May 7-9, 2018–Watch www.MeetTheMoney.com for program and registration information.
In the meantime, you can download all the presentations the conference completed last week from the RESOURCE CENTER at www.Hotel.Lawyer.com, or individual presentations as listed below:
2017 LIIC Top Ten. Mike Cahill, CEO and Founder of Hospitality Real Estate Counselors (HREC) rounds up LIIC’s annual member survey results. What markets should you avoid? Where are we in the hotel real estate cycle? Challenges and trends are identified in the LIIC Top Ten for the current year.
Hotels Values & Cap Rates. Suzanne Mellen, Senior Managing Director of HVS, provides valuable data on historical hotel sales from 2006-2017 (total dollar volume and price per key), hotel transaction volume (year-over-year and by quarter), most active markets for the past 3 years, hottest urban markets, most notable sales, and what is happening to hotel cap rates. CONTINUE READING →
10 May 2017
Hotel Real Estate: Forecasting Clear Skies with Some Clouds and Slightly Cooling Temperatures
For well over a decade, the members of the hotel industry’s preeminent think tank, “LIIC – The Lodging Industry Investment Council,” are annually surveyed to develop a list of the major hotel investment opportunities and challenges for the coming year. This exhaustive survey results in the LIIC Top Ten; a highly regarded profile of investment sentiment and attitudes for the lodging industry for the forthcoming 12 months. Altogether, the members of LIIC represent direct acquisition and disposition control of well over $40 billion of lodging real estate.
Members are highly active and have the pulse of the market, with 45% of LIIC hotel investors having successfully purchased a hotel in the last 12 months and an additional 16% having made offers but not been the winner. Moreover, 76% plan to sell a hotel over the next 24 months.
The hospitality industry’s most influential investors, lenders, corporate real estate executives, REIT’s, public hotel companies, brokers and significant lodging equity sources are represented on the Council. LIIC serves as the leading industry think tank for the lodging business (www.liic.org).
Mike Cahill, LIIC co-chairman, produced this year’s survey (www.mikecahill.com). Mr. Cahill is CEO and Founder of HREC – Hospitality Real Estate Counselors, a leading international hotel and casino brokerage and advisory firm (16 offices nationwide) specializing in lodging property sales, debt financing, consulting, appraisals and litigation support (www.hrec.com). Nate Shartar and Alexander Cammarata, Associates in HREC’s Denver office, assisted throughout the process.
- Hotel Real Estate: Forecasting Clear Skies with Some Clouds and Slightly Cooling Temperatures: Overall, the 2017 LIIC Survey is more positive than 2016 and starkly different than the peak year survey in 2015. Responses reveal a calmness, compared with wide spread nervousness in April 2016. Chinese investment is expected (36%) to slow slightly and Brexit’s impact on US hotels is considered slight. Private Equity followed by Listed REITs are predicted to dominate the purchase of Upscale to Luxury hotels; while, Regional Owner/Operators are projected to dominate the purchase of Economy to Upper Midscale hotels.
- Movement in the Hotel Real Estate Cycle?: Most investors (68%) believe we are still in the extra innings of the current cycle which began in 2009; however, an astute, highly intelligent minority (32%) believe we have begun a new cycle. Projections for the US economy are positive, with 60% forecasting GDP growth averaging greater than 2% over the next 24 months.
- Asset Pricing Bid/Ask Settles, Values Flat to Maybe Increasing: Over the next 12 months, 54% project that lodging real estate values will be flat in comparison to 2016. However, a sizable group (36%) forecast a slight increase in values (up to 5%). Favorite investment target, Upper Upscale lodging properties.
- 2017’s Greatest Threats to Hotel Investment?: The top three threats on the horizon:
- New Lodging Supply: 90% of LIIC members cited new hotel supply as the current and dominant top investment concern. Hypocritically, 81% are building new lodging assets.
- Increasing Interest Rates: With interest rates increasing gradually up to 100bps over the next 24 months, sellers need to understand the impact on asset pricing for hotels they are looking to sell.
- Government Mandated Minimum Wage Increases: Investors (28%; down from last year) are threatened by government mandated minimum wage increases and the corresponding impact on hotel operating costs (74% anticipate a gradual negative impact over the next five years).
- Hotel Transaction Market Continues Slight Cooling: 52% of responders forecast the total dollar volume of U.S. hotel transactions in calendar 2017 will be down relative to year-end 2016 and 22% believe volume will be flat. Similarly, 46% believe the number of assets sold to be down; while, 32% anticipate the number of assets sold to be flat.
- Hotel Debt Available, Yet Less Favorable: Hotel investors are “debt leery” causing 56% to seek refinancing of existing debt over the coming year even though 52% believe the optimum refinance window closed in the last six months. Owners have more concern with interest rate increases on senior debt than lender’s available leverage percentages.
- Lodging Development Marches Along: Investor attitude stays positive on the concept of building new lodging properties. As to developing hotels, 66% of LIIC responds “yes, if you are selective about product and markets”. Respondents are putting their money behind their votes, with 81% of relevant LIIC members having new hotels actively under development.
- Want to Buy a Hotel? Quantity and Quality: Quantity: 42% of investors believe that a “below average quantity” of hotels are available for purchase closely followed by 44% at “average quantity.” Quality (desirability to purchase): 52% believe the quality is average and 28% suggest negatively “slightly worse than 2016”.
- Markets NOT to Invest in?: LIIC members were asked which of the top 25 markets they “would not consider buying a hotel” in: Houston, TX (64%), Nashville, TN (32%), Detroit, MI (28%), New York, NY (28%), St. Louis, MO-IL (28%)Sleeper – where to buy? New Orleans! Not one vote against recorded.
- Marriott and Starwood Merger? If you own a Starwood branded hotel, 36% surprisingly believe the value of Starwood lodging investments have increased specifically due to the merger. On the other hand, the primary concern (22%) stressing hotel owners is decreasing negotiating leverage with Mega Marriott going forward.
LOS ANGELES—The Meet the Money® 2017 conference will bring hospitality industry leaders together from May 8-10 in Los Angeles at the Hyatt Regency Hotel LAX. This marks the conference’s 27th year, where hotel owners, operators, developers, consultants, investors, brands, lenders and other capital providers will gather to get deals done and discuss and catch up on the latest issues and opportunities involving the hotel industry.
“This year’s conference is particularly important,” said Jim Butler, Chairman of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group®. “The hospitality industry is at an interesting point in mid-2017. Intriguing opportunities will be available for the diligent and well-connected, but greater perils will also challenge investors. This conference will present many experts’ perspectives on what properties in which markets will thrive or perish. It is a great time to be an entrepreneur in the hotel industry.”
The theme this year is “Opportunity or Peril? Finding the right key to the right door.” Industry experts from top brands across the country will focus on the state of the industry and strategies that will aid in discovering opportunities and avoiding risks. Panelists will join discussions on successful development strategies, current capital markets, creative solutions for existing properties, foreign investment, and a range of other topics. The full conference program is now available online.
Since its inception in 1990, Meet the Money® has connected thousands of senior hotel financing experts, developers and hospitality insiders. Keynote speaker Richard K. Green, Ph.D., director of the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate, along with over 130 influential heavyweights in the industry have been assembled to provide insight on navigating the current market. Additional presentations will include a spotlight interview with Trump Hotel CEO Eric Danziger, and a CEO panel with top executives from Condor Hospitality Trust, Monday Properties, Interval International, CMB Regional Centers, and Aimbridge Hospitality. A full list of all conferences speakers can be found on the conference website.
About Meet the Money
For 27 years, Meet the Money® has provided a unique environment for forging relationships and gaining up-to-the-minute information about the world of hotel investment and finance. The conference is big enough to attract heavy hitters, but small enough to network with them. At Meet the Money®, there is time, atmosphere and availability to have meaningful meetings with deal-making potential. Register now at MeetTheMoney.com.
About Global Hospitality Group® of JMBM
The hospitality attorneys in the Global Hospitality Group® of Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell LLP comprise the premier hospitality practice in a full-service law firm, and the most experienced legal and advisory team in the industry. Our team of hotel lawyers and business advisors has more than $71 billion in hotel transaction experience, involving more than 3,800 properties located around the globe, and providing one of the most extensive virtual data bases of market terms for deals and financings.
The Lodging Industry Investment Council (LIIC) met in Los Angeles during the American Lodging Investment Summit 2017 and our friends from Hotel News Now (HNN) were on the scene.
Some of us were asked by HNN for our take on where the hospitality industry is headed in 2017 — including my friend and fellow LIIC board member, Mike Cahill, who will present the “LIIC Top Ten” hospitality issues of the year at the national hotel finance and investment conference, Meet the Money®, as he does every year.
To read my comments about why 2017 will be a year of change, as well as comments by my associate, Wei Deng, regarding the impact the possible depreciation of Chinese currency could have on the industry, see HNN’s coverage: LIIC: Hot takes on industry hot button issues.
I was also interviewed in the video accompanying the article, regarding predictions for M&A in 2017 (as were my colleagues Phil Ribolow of Deutsche Bank, Mike Cahill of Hospitality Real Estate Investors, Andrea Foster of Marcus Hotels, and Gary Gray 24/7Hotels). My comments in that video are as follows:
“It must have been about 20 years ago at one of our Meet The Money® conferences, an industry leader predicted that in the next few years there would be two hotel companies. I don’t remember which ones they were – I think it was Hilton and Marriott. Interestingly, the consolidation – the urge to merge – has been extremely strong. And while one can look at the brands and think that the smaller brands – a Hyatt, a Wyndham – might be more prone to being acquired. I’m not so sure that’s true. The scale of capital that is available really makes the entire hospitality industry subject to acquisition. The urge to merge is inevitable.” CONTINUE READING →
20 October 2016
David Loeb, Senior Research Analyst at RW Baird, presented his research during the Meet the Money® 2017 planning meeting hosted recently during The Lodging Conference. His presentation covered factors currently impacting the hospitality industry, including the stock market, cap rate changes, hotel REITs, and new technologies.
I found David’s presentation very interesting and noted the following highlights:
- Hotel supply and demand growth are nearly in equilibrium, and forecasts still call for continuing positive grow
- Many investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next downturn
- Secondary and tertiary markets are outperforming
- Select service continues to grow in popularity and is getting a premium valuation
- In terms of market capitalization, the hotel industry is comprised of “Host and 14 dwarves,” but when compared to non-hotel REITs (such as retail industry giant Simon Property Group), it is more like 15 dwarves
- Transparency in hotel pricing and technology are having a dramatic effect on the hotel industry
15 October 2016
The hotel lawyers of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® recently hosted an event for hotel industry leaders held during the Phoenix Lodging Conference. The meeting was both a high level networking opportunity and a planning session for the Firm’s national hotel finance conference – Meet the Money® 2017, which will be held at the Hyatt Regency LAX, May 8-10, 2017.
For more information, visit www.MeetTheMoney.com.
U.S. Lodging Industry Analysis: Daniel Lesser, LW Hospitality Advisors
To help establish the setting, Daniel Lesser, President and CEO of LW Hospitality Advisors, gave a presentation on his view of the lodging strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (or SWOT analysis).
Among the industry strengths and opportunities Dan discussed were the U.S. economy, strong inbound foreign tourism, CMBS maturities, and the rise of secondary markets. Some of the weaknesses and threats included slowing U.S. travel growth, changing regulations, the rising influence of labor unions, cyber security risks and travel industry disrupters such as Airbnb and HomeAway.
Dan’s presentation is below. CONTINUE READING →