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Hotel Lawyer with PKF’s “US Lodging Market Outlook” — What if we hit the Fiscal Cliff? What if we postpone it? Recession in 2013?

16 October 2012

What happens to the hospitality industry with certain likely political and economic scenarios?

Here is another insightful analysis of hotel industry performance and forecast. But unlike many industry analysts, Mark Woodworth and his team at PKF Hospitality Research forecast the effect of how Washington deals with the “fiscal cliff” deadline and related budget issues.

What happens if the automatic budget cuts currently the law of the land kick in because Congress can’t agree on an alternative course of action? What happens if they “kick the cliff down the road.”?

The results may surprise you. One scenario likely leads to a recession in the first half of 2013, but in any event Woodworth and his PKF team say ” Under all scenarios considered, 2014 will be a great year for the industry. It remains a great time to be investing capital in the industry.”

PKF presentation and highlights on US Lodging Outlook

We asked Mark Woodworth to summarize a few of the key thoughts he presented at The Lodging Conference in Phoenix a few days, ago and here is what he said:

  1. Industry fundamentals will continue to move in a positive direction, although the pace of improvement has begun to moderate. This will persist through most of 2013; unless
  2. The fiscal cliff becomes a reality. In this case, recession hits in Q1 2013 and industry RevPAR for the year will be flat (see slides in the attached deck that address the “Fiscal Cliff” and “Kick the Cliff” scenarios.
  3. If our leadership in Washington “Kicks the Cliff” down the road, 2013 will actually be better than our expected case scenario, although the longer term outlook for the overall economy is diminished.
  4. Under all scenarios considered, 2014 will be a great year for the industry. It remains a great time to be investing capital in the industry.

For a full copy of Mark’s presentation, please see Center/Hotel Industry Presentations, or click here

Woodworth%20Mark.jpgMr. Woodworth is an Executive Vice President of PKF Consulting (“PKF/C”), and President of PKF Hospitality Research, an affiliate of PKF/C. Mr. Woodworth is based in the Atlanta office of PKF/C. Mr. Woodworth is responsible for all of PKF/C’s activities in the Southeast and Caribbean.

Mr. Woodworth is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a lecturer at Cornell University and Georgia State University, among others. He serves on the Board of Directors of the Atlanta Convention & Visitors Bureau, the Finance Committee of the United Way of Metropolitan Atlanta and the Council at the Henderson Mill Elementa

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