4 June 2009
Hospitality Lawyer with more from the New York hotel conference.
Earlier this week, we gave you our initial take on the NYU hotel conference. Now here are some of the things we heard that we thought worthy of note.
Sound Bites from NYU
- RevPAR projections for 2009 range from STR’s optimistic forecast of “only a -9.8% drop” to -20% drop (basically extending the year to date experience for 2009 for the rest of the year).
- This RevPAR decline translates into a 40-50% decrease in NOI at many hotels, and nonrecourse owners are deciding that they are not going to pay the negative carry on debt service, or increasingly, the negative operating losses.
- Rich Conti of the Plasencia Group: “We are in the “do nothing” stage now. Lenders are doing nothing other than 90 day extensions. There is still a huge disconnect of the bid and ask from buyers and sellers.”
- A few lenders are taking properties back, or borrowers are handing them the keys. The prevailing practice up to now — particularly in the CMBS world — seems to have been “extend and pretend” (extend loan maturities and pretend everything is OK).
- Budgets are being revised downward on a monthly basis. Anyone looking at forecasts made last quarter (much less year end 2008) is “driving only by looking in the rear view mirror.”
- Despite data suggesting that rate cutting does not raise occupancy, hotels are slashing rates as they try to “catch the falling knife” of declining occupancies and ADRs.
- Henry Vickers, AEW: “I think we will see a lot more defaults coming now as borrowers realize their equity is gone.”
- Steve Van, Prism Hotels: “We are projecting that CMBS loan defaults will go from the current default rate of about 2% to an astonishing 8% by the end of this year. And the loan defaults will go from “technical” or maturity defaults to payment defaults as borrowers quit making loan payments. That is when CMBS lenders will start taking properties back.”
- Generally speaking everything is still pretty much in gridlock with some sense (or is it hope?) that the bid-ask gap may be starting to close. There are lots of people making bids on properties, but as Bill Reynolds of Thayer Lodging said, “Basically, we are a buyer if you are ready to fall over dead as a seller.”
- There is very little money for construction or development, except perhaps loans guaranteed by the SBA, Department of Agriculture, or some local banks. The few lenders that are making any loans can cherry pick sponsors and loan terms.
- Mark Lomanno of Smith Travel Research: “After years of educating consumers about the unique values of hotel brands and product, the price wars send the consumer a different message that says customers only need to worry about price. . . . This time the rate declines are more severe. This looks twice as bad as 2001. Last time it took 6 years to recover from rate declines. This time it will take longer.”
- Anonymous 1: “How do you practice yield management in this environment? There is such a short booking window. We are down 57% in occupancy and we are going to do whatever we have to in order to sell room nights.”
- Anonymous 2: “Our group customers are coming to us and saying, “Your competitors have slashed their rates and we want you to cut yours too if you want our business.” What are we going to do?”
- Worst markets? – NYC followed by Phoenix, Chicago, Las Vegas.
For other insights from the 31st Annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference, please see
Other articles on State of the Hotel Industry
Other recent articles that relate to the state of the industry paint a pretty consistent picture of data and trends. Here are a few links to articles for your convenience:
- Hotel Lawyer: Does “End of the Recession” mean “Recovery”? Not for luxury hotels!
- Hotel Lawyer: Some practical alternatives to hotel closings – turning around operating results.
- National implications from the latest hotel industry Survey
- Conditions for hotel industry “RESET” may be coming into alignment
- Hotel foreclosures on track to set new records in California and elsewhere.
- Special servicers: Busy now? Realpoint says work will double by year end! Implications for all CRE loans.
- Hotel delinquencies predicted to exceed 8% by year end. Red Roof defaults on $361 million in loans. Are there lessons for hotel lenders and investors in the latest California market report?
- PKF says 2009 worst year in lodging history. Robust recovery likely but years away
- What lies ahead for the hotel industry? When do values bottom? When do they recover?
- Hospitality Lawyer at the 2009 NYU hotel conference
- Hospitality Lawyers present JEWELS from Meet the Money® 2009
- Hospitality Lawyer Insights
- Hospitality Lawyer: The “amazing relationship” between GDP and hotel room demand. When the recovery comes, what will it look like for the hotel industry?
This is Jim Butler, author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer, signing off. We’ve done more than $87 billion of hotel transactions and have developed innovative solutions to unlock value from troubled hotel transactions. Who’s your hotel lawyer?
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