Published on: June 25, 2009

Hospitality Lawyer and Special servicers: Busy now? Realpoint says work will double by year end! Implications for all CRE loans.

By Jim Butler and the Global Hospitality Group®

25 June 2009

This is one of many articles on the subject of “troubled hotel loans – workouts, bankruptcies & receiverships” in the rich library at www.HotelLawBlog.com.

Hospitality Lawyer with the latest Realpoint Research report on special servicing of CMBS loans. There are important implications of this data for all Commercial Real Estate or CRE loans

I have now had time to settle in and digest the latest June 2009, Realpoint Research report on CMBS loan delinquencies. The numbers paint a very serious and dramatic picture. A copy of the full report is attached, with my personal highlights to point out some facts I thought were particularly significant. Let me know if you would prefer a clean copy without my highlighting and lines, and I will email you a “clean” copy.

The Realpoint research is directed solely to CMBS delinquencies, but we think distress in this sector (roughly one third of all commercial real estate loans) is representative of stress that will be experienced in at least another third of the CRE loans made by commercial banks, if not all CRE loans.

So what does this all mean? Here are my thoughts.

What’s important in the Realpoint report?

The report has too much data to really “summarize” it, but here are three bullet point takeaways:

CMBS delinquencies will at least double by year end 2009

In May 2009, total outstanding CMBS loan delinquencies rose $1.6 billion to $18.8 billion, more than 368% of the delinquent levels one year ago.
In May 2009, delinquent CMBS loans reached 2.275% of outstanding CMBS loans, up more than 500% from one year ago — up from 2.07% one month prior, and 1.28% in January 2009.
Realpoint predicts that CMBS loan delinquencies will double (exceed 4.4%) by year-end 2009, and possibly approach 5.7%.

“The hotel sector will likely experience an exponential increase in delinquencies as both leisure and business travel slows further, resulting in further declines in occupancy, RevPAR and ADR.”
The top 3 states for delinquency exposure remain California, Texas and Florida and they represent more than 30% of delinquencies — each state accounts for about 11%, 10% and 9%, respectively of the total CMBS delinquencies.

A graphic view of the new data.

Here a couple of the graphic demonstrations Realpoint provides on its data that really emphasize the points:

The following chart shows the increase in CMBS delinquencies over the past year, growing from just under .5% last June 2008 to more than 2.2% in May 2009. Now imagine it spiking to 4.4% — or possibly 5.7% — by December 2009!

This chart shows why CMBS special servicers became so busy so fast. Notice the steep growth in special servicing exposure as a percentage of outstanding CMBS loans from January 2005 through May 2009.

The next chart I want to call your attention to is too small to reproduce well here, but look at Table 8 in the Realpoint report which shows how CMBS hotel loan delinquencies compare to other classes. Note that delinquent hotel loans now comprise about 11% of delinquent CMBS loans, and have a delinquency rate slightly higher (2.8%) than the average delinquency rate for all CMBS loans.

Similarly, look at Table 10 which lists of the top 10 states by CMBS loan delinquencies. Note that these 10 states account for more than 60% of the total loan delinquencies, and just 3 states — California, Texas and Florida — account for more than 30%, or almost half of that total.

View my highlighted and marked up version of the Realpoint Research report by clicking here, or email me for a clean copy of it.

What’s it all mean?

It looks to me like we are headed for a lot more trouble in all commercial real estate loans, but particularly hotel loans where lost frequency and severity is climbing. More attention to these loans will protect and harvest greater value. It will be a good investment.

Other articles on State of the Hotel Industry

Other recent articles that relate to the state of the industry paint a pretty consistent picture of data and trends. Here are a few links to articles for your convenience:

Hotel Lawyer: Does “End of the Recession” mean “Recovery”? Not for luxury hotels!

Hotel Lawyer: Some practical alternatives to hotel closings – turning around operating results.

National implications from the latest hotel industry Survey

Conditions for hotel industry “RESET” may be coming into alignment

Hotel foreclosures on track to set new records in California and elsewhere.

Special servicers: Busy now? Realpoint says work will double by year end! Implications for all CRE loans.

Hotel delinquencies predicted to exceed 8% by year end. Red Roof defaults on $361 million in loans. Are there lessons for hotel lenders and investors in the latest California market report?

PKF says 2009 worst year in lodging history. Robust recovery likely but years away

What lies ahead for the hotel industry? When do values bottom? When do they recover?

Hospitality Lawyer at the 2009 NYU hotel conference

Hospitality Lawyers present JEWELS from Meet the Money® 2009

Hospitality Lawyer Insights

Hospitality Lawyer: The “amazing relationship” between GDP and hotel room demand. When the recovery comes, what will it look like for the hotel industry?

This is Jim Butler, author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer, signing off. We’ve done more than $87 billion of hotel transactions and have developed innovative solutions to unlock value from troubled hotel transactions. Who’s your hotel lawyer?

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Our Perspective. We represent hotel lenders, owners and investors. We have helped our clients find business and legal solutions for more than $125 billion of hotel transactions, involving more than 4,700 properties all over the world. For more information, please contact Jim Butler at jbutler@jmbm.com or 310.201.3526.

Jim Butler is a founding partner of JMBM and Chairman of its Global Hospitality Group®. Jim is one of the top hospitality attorneys in the world. GOOGLE “hotel lawyer” and you will see why.

JMBM’s troubled asset team has handled more than 1,000 receiverships and many complex insolvency issues. But Jim and his team are more than “just” great hotel lawyers. They are also hospitality consultants and business advisors. For example, they have developed some unique proprietary approaches to unlock value in underwater hotels that can benefit lenders, borrowers and investors. (GOOGLE “JMBM SAVE program”.)

Whether it is a troubled investment or new transaction, JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® creates legal and business solutions for hotel owners and lenders. They are deal makers. They can help find the right operator or capital provider. They know who to call and how to reach them.

Jim Butler

Jim Butler is recognized as one of the top hotel lawyers in the world. He devotes 100% of his practice to hospitality, representing hotel owners, developers and lenders. Jim leads JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® — a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion.
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Robert Braun

Robert Braun is a partner in JMBM's Corporate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Bob represents owners in both transactional and operational issues. He advises clients with respect to business formation, financing, mergers and acquisitions, venture capital financing, joint ventures and strategic partnerships. He has represented hotel owners in the negotiation of several hundred management agreements, as well as spa management and franchise agreements. Bob also advises hotel owners regarding telecommunications, software, internet, e-commerce, data processing and outsourcing agreements. To read Bob's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and select "Management Agreements." For more information, please contact Bob Braun at 310.785.5331 or rbraun@jmbm.com.

Marta Fernandez

Marta Fernandez is a partner in JMBM's Employment and Labor Department and a senior member of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. As a management labor lawyer with more than 20 years of experience, Marta specializes in representing hospitality industry clients in all aspects of labor and employment including labor-management relations such as union prevention, collective bargaining for single as well as multi-employer bargaining units, neutrality agreements and defense of unfair labor practice charges before the NLRB. She defends employers in administrative and litigation claims, such as employee claims of sexual harassment and discrimination and counsels clients in preventative strategies such as executive training, arbitration enforcement, and policies and procedures. To read Marta's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and select "Labor & Employment." For more information, please contact Marta Fernandez at 310.201.3534 or at mfernandez@jmbm.com.

Guy Maisnik

Guy Maisnik is a partner in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Guy's deep and broad transactional practice includes complex real estate finance and venture capital transactions, including project finance, commercial finance, leveraged leasing and real estate acquisitions. He assists clients with development, leasing and disposition, loan portfolio acquisitions, loan and debt restructure, workouts and real estate exchanges. Go to www.HotelLawBlog.com for current information in these areas. For more information, please contact Guy Maisnik at 310.201.3588 or mgm@jmbm.com.

David Sudeck

David Sudeck is a Partner in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. David has significant experience in the vacation ownership arena, focusing on the formation and registration of condominiums, timeshares and fractional interest regimes. He negotiates hotel, spa and restaurant management agreements, and assists client in the development, acquisition, sale and leasing of hotels, golf courses and restaurants. For David's take on current issues in the timeshare arena, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and click on the topic, "Timeshare." For more information, please contact David Sudeck at 310.201.3518 or dsudeck @jmbm.com.

Robert Kaplan

Robert Kaplan is a partner in JMBM's Bankruptcy, Insolvency and Restructurings Group and a senior member of the Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Bob represents lenders, special servicers, hard money lenders, community banks, national banking associations, distressed debt investors, and equity investors, positioning them for the best possible outcome by acting expeditiously to preserve value and increase cash flow. His industry experience and his knowledge of the current capital markets -- where distressed assets often include complex deal structures and securitized loans -- allows him to bring creative and effective strategies to the table. When aggressive litigation is the best strategy, he is a vigorous and effective advocate for his clients. Bob represented the securitized lender in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case filed by the Clift Hotel in San Francisco, and in the subsequent negotiations and successful sale of the loan to a third party. The lender -- acting by and through GMAC Commercial Mortgage Corporation as special servicer -- was the holder of a $60 million loan secured by a Deed of Trust on the Clift Hotel. He has also served as counsel to CapMark, J.E. Robert Company, Inc., AMRESCO Management Inc. and Midland Loan Servicer in their capacity as special servicers on troubled hotel loans in CMBS pools. For more information, contact Robert Kaplan at 415.984.9673 or rkaplan@jmbm.com.

Martin Orlick

Martin Orlick is a partner in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Marty specializes in representing hospitality industry clients in Americans With Disabilities Act (ADA) compliance and defense. He has represented more than 500 businesses in ADA issues, many of them hotels and restaurants, as well as hotel mixed-use properties. Marty is a member of the American College of Real Estate Lawyers (ACREL) and a frequent speaker on the ADA and other topics. To read Marty's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.comand select "ADA." For more information, please contact Marty Orlick at 415.984.9667 or morlick@jmbm.com.

Scott Brink

Scott Brink is a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® and a partner in JMBM's Labor & Employment Law Department. Scott is a management labor lawyer with more than two decades of experience representing employers in all aspects of labor relations and employment law including union prevention, collective bargaining negotiations, defense of unfair labor practice charges before the NLRB, wrongful discharge litigation, individual and class action employment discrimination and wage-and-hour claims, sexual-harassment litigation, arbitrations, personnel policies, California wage and hour law, and employee discipline and discharge. An experienced trial attorney, Scott has litigated a number of high-profile and complex cases involving a wide range of labor and employment law matters. For more information, contact Scott Brink at RSB@jmbm.com or 310.785.5365.

Travis Gemoets

Travis Gemoets is an experienced trial attorney and represents management in all facets of labor and employment law, including wage/hour class actions, claims of discrimination, harassment, wrongful termination, trade secrets and unfair competition, union/management relations and workplace violence. He is a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group(r), in which capacity he negotiates union contracts and resolves labor disputes throughout the country, defends class action claims, develops strategies for the mass onboarding and separation of employees, and recommends proactive changes to employers' policies and practices in order to minimize potential liability risks. Reach him at 310.785.5387 or tgemoets@jmbm.com.

Mark S. Adams

Mark S. Adams is an experienced trial lawyer and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® and Chinese Investment Group™. He focuses his practice on business litigation including contracts, corporate and partnership disputes, and hospitality disputes and litigation. On behalf of hotel and resort owners, Mark has successfully litigated the termination of long-term, no-cut, hotel management agreements, franchise agreements, fiduciary duty issues, investor-owner disputes, TOT assessments, and more. He has wide-ranging trial experience in a variety of commercial disputes, including complex multi-party litigation and class actions. He has tried numerous cases in state courts, federal courts, and in domestic and international arbitrations, and is a frequent author and speaker on trial practice. Mark's trial wins have been covered by Forbes, Reuters, and other publications. He has obtained two of California's annual 50 largest jury verdicts in the same year. Mark has taken or defended nearly 1,000 depositions throughout North America, Europe and the Middle East. He has been quoted as an expert on noncompete agreements in the Wall Street Journal. For more information, contact Mark at 949. 623.7230 or markadams@jmbm.com.

Bennett Young

Bennett Young is a partner in JMBM's Bankruptcy, Insolvency and Restructurings Group and a senior member of the Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. His clients include lenders, financial institutions, secured and unsecured creditors, distressed investment funds, businesses, receivers, special servicers and creditors' committees. Ben represented the owner of a partially completed multi-billion dollar resort property in the restructuring of its finances and has represented lenders to hotels and casinos. For more information, contact Ben Young at 415.984.9626 or byoung@jmbm.com

Sheri Bonstelle

Sheri Bonstelle is a partner in JMBM's Government, Land Use, Environment and Energy Department, and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group®. She represents owners and developers in land use, zoning, environmental, litigation and construction matters. She manages all aspects of the entitlement process, including representing clients before local and state agencies, commissions and councils. Sheri also represents clients in a variety of land use and real estate litigation matters in state and federal courts, including cases arising under CEQA and other environmental laws. Her hotel experience includes handling the adaptive reuse of an historic office building as a luxury boutique hotel. For more information, please contact Sheri Bonstelle at 310.712.6847 or SBonstelle@jmbm.com.

Kevin McDonnell

Kevin McDonnell is a partner in JMBM's Government, Land Use, Environment and Energy Department, and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group®. Kevin represents developers and owners of hotels in a broad range of land use and zoning issues including entitlements, code enforcement, easements and parking requirements, as well as related Parcel Map and Tract Map subdivision issues. His hospitality experience includes hotels, condo-hotels and mixed-use projects. A registered Civil Engineer and Structural Engineer in California, and a former building official for the City of Los Angeles, Kevin brings unique experience and insight in Zoning and Building Code applications and Code Enforcement issues. For more information, please contact Kevin McDonnell at 310.201.3590 or kkm@jmbm.com.

Jamie Ogden

Jamie Ogden is a tax lawyer at Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell LLP. He advises individuals and businesses on a range of tax planning, tax controversy and estate planning matters. Jamie’s experience includes all tax aspects with respect to the hospitality industry, including acquisitions and dispositions (including Section 1031 exchanges), financing and management agreements. He also serves as lead tax counsel on M&A transactions, financing, internal corporate restructurings and deferred compensation matters. Jamie also works frequently with litigators on the tax aspects of litigation, judgments and settlements. Jamie has extensive experience with foreign compliance matters, including each variation of the IRS amnesty programs. In addition to his experience in private practice, Jamie also brings several years of service from both state and federal government. For more information, contact Jamie at JOgden@jmbm.com or 310.201.3510.

Wei Deng

Wei Deng is General Counsel of Bosen American Capital, Inc. where in addition to his legal duties, he is responsible for sourcing, evaluating and proposing United States investment opportunities to the company. Wei was previously with JMBM, where he focused on transactional and litigation matters.

Jay Thompson

Jay Thompson has extensive experience representing private companies, business owners, family offices and investors in mergers and acquisitions, private equity and venture capital transactions and private securities offerings. Jay serves as general counsel to many of his clients, their management, and board of directors, helping to shape and execute their business strategies, facilitate growth and liquidity, as well as to advise them on day-to-day legal and other strategic issues. He is known for his practical approach to business issues. Contact Jay at JThompson@jmbm.com or 949.623.7258

Marianne Martin

Marianne Martin has nearly fifteen years of experience advising clients on a variety of commercial, financing, bankruptcy, restructuring and M&A matters, with a particular niche dealing with distressed and/or turnaround situations. Her clients frequently include private equity and hedge funds, independent sponsors, family offices, public and private corporations, financial institutions and banks, healthcare-related companies, municipalities and venture capital funds. She has represented clients in various capacities, including as borrowers/debtors, lenders, acquirers, and agents/trustees in negotiating and documenting complex commercial transactions, out-of-court restructuring transactions and advising on purchasing considerations in secondary market debt transactions. Contact Marianne at MMartin@jmbm.com or 310.201.3531

Trevor Countryman

Trevor Countryman is an associate in the firm's Real Estate Department. He advises clients in all aspects of real estate transactions including property acquisitions and dispositions, financing, leasing, development and construction. Trevor's clients range from large funds to individual developers and opportunistic investors, engaged in deals involving office, retail, multi-family, single-family, mixed-use and hotel properties. Contact Trevor Countryman at 310.201.3546 or TCountryman@jmbm.com.

Vanessa Han

Vanessa Han is an associate in JMBM's Corporate group. Vanessa can be reached at VHan@jmbm.com or 310.785.5383

Vince Farhat

Vince Farhat is Chair of JMBM's White Collar Defense and Investigations practice. Vince has extensive jury trial experience and focuses his practice on representing companies and individuals in criminal and civil investigations and prosecutions by government enforcement agencies, as well as complex federal litigation. He also advises companies in connection with complex and sensitive internal investigations. Prior to joining JMBM, Vince served as an assistant United States attorney in the Major Frauds Section of the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of California. Contact Vince Farhat at 310.785.5382 or VFarhat@jmbm.com.

Sarah G. Hartman

Sarah G. Hartman is a partner in JMBM's Litigation Group and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Sarah is an experienced litigator who advises and represents clients through all aspects of litigation, from inception through trial and appeal. She advises and represents clients in the hospitality industry, including the termination of hotel management agreements and franchise agreements. Sarah also advises and represents clients on women's health technology issues, intellectual property matters, and complex commercial disputes, including breach of fiduciary duty, fraud, breach of contract, unfair competition, products liability, employment litigation, class action defense, false advertising and other complex financial disputes. Contact Sarah Hartman at 949.623.7243 or SGHartman@jmbm.com.

Michael H. Strub, Jr.

Michael H. Strub, Jr. is a partner in JMBM's Litigation Group and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. He is a highly skilled trial and appellate attorney who has handled high-stakes, complex commercial and business cases for 30 years including disputes arising out of hotel construction, lending, and bankruptcy. In addition, he has represented plaintiffs and defendants in business and commercial disputes in a variety of areas. Contact Michael H. Strub, Jr. at 949.623.7233 or MStrub@jmbm.com.

Ask the Hotel Lawyer™ is a quarterly column that I write for JMBM's Global Hospitality Advisor®. If you have a question you would like to submit to Ask the Hotel Lawyer™ please use the comments box below. While your question may not be of sufficient general interest for the column, I will try to respond to you individually if you leave your contact information below.
Jim Butler.