Published on: May 10, 2017

The Lodging Industry Investment Council’s Top Ten: investment trends and challenges

By Jim Butler and the Global Hospitality Group®

10 May 2017

Hotel Real Estate: Forecasting Clear Skies with Some Clouds and Slightly Cooling Temperatures

For well over a decade, the members of the hotel industry’s preeminent think tank, “LIIC – The Lodging Industry Investment Council,” are annually surveyed to develop a list of the major hotel investment opportunities and challenges for the coming year. This exhaustive survey results in the LIIC Top Ten; a highly regarded profile of investment sentiment and attitudes for the lodging industry for the forthcoming 12 months. Altogether, the members of LIIC represent direct acquisition and disposition control of well over $40 billion of lodging real estate.

Members are highly active and have the pulse of the market, with 45% of LIIC hotel investors having successfully purchased a hotel in the last 12 months and an additional 16% having made offers but not been the winner. Moreover, 76% plan to sell a hotel over the next 24 months.

The hospitality industry’s most influential investors, lenders, corporate real estate executives, REIT’s, public hotel companies, brokers and significant lodging equity sources are represented on the Council. LIIC serves as the leading industry think tank for the lodging business (www.liic.org).

Mike Cahill, LIIC co-chairman, produced this year’s survey (www.mikecahill.com). Mr. Cahill is CEO and Founder of HREC – Hospitality Real Estate Counselors, a leading international hotel and casino brokerage and advisory firm (16 offices nationwide) specializing in lodging property sales, debt financing, consulting, appraisals and litigation support (www.hrec.com). Nate Shartar and Alexander Cammarata, Associates in HREC’s Denver office, assisted throughout the process.

2017 Top Ten LIIC Survey Results

Hotel Real Estate: Forecasting Clear Skies with Some Clouds and Slightly Cooling Temperatures: Overall, the 2017 LIIC Survey is more positive than 2016 and starkly different than the peak year survey in 2015. Responses reveal a calmness, compared with wide spread nervousness in April 2016. Chinese investment is expected (36%) to slow slightly and Brexit’s impact on US hotels is considered slight. Private Equity followed by Listed REITs are predicted to dominate the purchase of Upscale to Luxury hotels; while, Regional Owner/Operators are projected to dominate the purchase of Economy to Upper Midscale hotels.
Movement in the Hotel Real Estate Cycle?: Most investors (68%) believe we are still in the extra innings of the current cycle which began in 2009; however, an astute, highly intelligent minority (32%) believe we have begun a new cycle. Projections for the US economy are positive, with 60% forecasting GDP growth averaging greater than 2% over the next 24 months.
Asset Pricing Bid/Ask Settles, Values Flat to Maybe Increasing: Over the next 12 months, 54% project that lodging real estate values will be flat in comparison to 2016. However, a sizable group (36%) forecast a slight increase in values (up to 5%). Favorite investment target, Upper Upscale lodging properties.
2017’s Greatest Threats to Hotel Investment?: The top three threats on the horizon:
- New Lodging Supply: 90% of LIIC members cited new hotel supply as the current and dominant top investment concern. Hypocritically, 81% are building new lodging assets.
- Increasing Interest Rates: With interest rates increasing gradually up to 100bps over the next 24 months, sellers need to understand the impact on asset pricing for hotels they are looking to sell.
- Government Mandated Minimum Wage Increases: Investors (28%; down from last year) are threatened by government mandated minimum wage increases and the corresponding impact on hotel operating costs (74% anticipate a gradual negative impact over the next five years).
Hotel Transaction Market Continues Slight Cooling: 52% of responders forecast the total dollar volume of U.S. hotel transactions in calendar 2017 will be down relative to year-end 2016 and 22% believe volume will be flat. Similarly, 46% believe the number of assets sold to be down; while, 32% anticipate the number of assets sold to be flat.
Hotel Debt Available, Yet Less Favorable: Hotel investors are “debt leery” causing 56% to seek refinancing of existing debt over the coming year even though 52% believe the optimum refinance window closed in the last six months. Owners have more concern with interest rate increases on senior debt than lender’s available leverage percentages.
Lodging Development Marches Along: Investor attitude stays positive on the concept of building new lodging properties. As to developing hotels, 66% of LIIC responds “yes, if you are selective about product and markets”. Respondents are putting their money behind their votes, with 81% of relevant LIIC members having new hotels actively under development.
Want to Buy a Hotel? Quantity and Quality: Quantity: 42% of investors believe that a “below average quantity” of hotels are available for purchase closely followed by 44% at “average quantity.” Quality (desirability to purchase): 52% believe the quality is average and 28% suggest negatively “slightly worse than 2016”.
Markets NOT to Invest in?: LIIC members were asked which of the top 25 markets they “would not consider buying a hotel” in: Houston, TX (64%), Nashville, TN (32%), Detroit, MI (28%), New York, NY (28%), St. Louis, MO-IL (28%)Sleeper – where to buy? New Orleans! Not one vote against recorded.
Marriott and Starwood Merger? If you own a Starwood branded hotel, 36% surprisingly believe the value of Starwood lodging investments have increased specifically due to the merger. On the other hand, the primary concern (22%) stressing hotel owners is decreasing negotiating leverage with Mega Marriott going forward.

LIIC Bonus Questions:

Looking forward, the “hotel investment illuminati” predict:

Buyers paying package (5 or more hotels) premium? Maybe not anymore, 53% say no and 47% yes.
Congrats to the 13% of LIIC members that last year predicted the Trump Presidential victory; interestingly, 44% now say the Trump Administration is positively affecting hotel ownership.
When staying at a hotel on a multiple day business trip, LIIC’s greatest “Pet Peeves” are (1) painfully slow internet, (2) uncomfortable bedding, and (3) noise (hallways, PTACs, and outside traffic). Other “Peeves” include paparazzi, breakfast not starting early enough, and the cost of items in the snack shop being too expensive.

For additional information, please contact:

LIIC – The Lodging Industry Investment Council

www.liic.org

Co-Chairmen

Mike Cahill, CEO & Founder, HREC: mcahill@hrec.com

Sean Hennessey, CEO, Lodging Investment Advisors: shennessey@lodgingadvisors.com

Jim Butler, Partner, JMBM – Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell, LLP: jbutler@jmbm.com

Jim Butler

Jim Butler is recognized as one of the top hotel lawyers in the world. He devotes 100% of his practice to hospitality, representing hotel owners, developers and lenders. Jim leads JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® — a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion.
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Robert Braun

Robert Braun is a partner in JMBM's Corporate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Bob represents owners in both transactional and operational issues. He advises clients with respect to business formation, financing, mergers and acquisitions, venture capital financing, joint ventures and strategic partnerships. He has represented hotel owners in the negotiation of several hundred management agreements, as well as spa management and franchise agreements. Bob also advises hotel owners regarding telecommunications, software, internet, e-commerce, data processing and outsourcing agreements. To read Bob's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and select "Management Agreements." For more information, please contact Bob Braun at 310.785.5331 or rbraun@jmbm.com.

Marta Fernandez

Marta Fernandez is a partner in JMBM's Employment and Labor Department and a senior member of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. As a management labor lawyer with more than 20 years of experience, Marta specializes in representing hospitality industry clients in all aspects of labor and employment including labor-management relations such as union prevention, collective bargaining for single as well as multi-employer bargaining units, neutrality agreements and defense of unfair labor practice charges before the NLRB. She defends employers in administrative and litigation claims, such as employee claims of sexual harassment and discrimination and counsels clients in preventative strategies such as executive training, arbitration enforcement, and policies and procedures. To read Marta's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and select "Labor & Employment." For more information, please contact Marta Fernandez at 310.201.3534 or at mfernandez@jmbm.com.

Guy Maisnik

Guy Maisnik is a partner in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Guy's deep and broad transactional practice includes complex real estate finance and venture capital transactions, including project finance, commercial finance, leveraged leasing and real estate acquisitions. He assists clients with development, leasing and disposition, loan portfolio acquisitions, loan and debt restructure, workouts and real estate exchanges. Go to www.HotelLawBlog.com for current information in these areas. For more information, please contact Guy Maisnik at 310.201.3588 or mgm@jmbm.com.

David Sudeck

David Sudeck is a Partner in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. David has significant experience in the vacation ownership arena, focusing on the formation and registration of condominiums, timeshares and fractional interest regimes. He negotiates hotel, spa and restaurant management agreements, and assists client in the development, acquisition, sale and leasing of hotels, golf courses and restaurants. For David's take on current issues in the timeshare arena, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and click on the topic, "Timeshare." For more information, please contact David Sudeck at 310.201.3518 or dsudeck @jmbm.com.

Robert Kaplan

Robert Kaplan is a partner in JMBM's Bankruptcy, Insolvency and Restructurings Group and a senior member of the Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Bob represents lenders, special servicers, hard money lenders, community banks, national banking associations, distressed debt investors, and equity investors, positioning them for the best possible outcome by acting expeditiously to preserve value and increase cash flow. His industry experience and his knowledge of the current capital markets -- where distressed assets often include complex deal structures and securitized loans -- allows him to bring creative and effective strategies to the table. When aggressive litigation is the best strategy, he is a vigorous and effective advocate for his clients. Bob represented the securitized lender in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case filed by the Clift Hotel in San Francisco, and in the subsequent negotiations and successful sale of the loan to a third party. The lender -- acting by and through GMAC Commercial Mortgage Corporation as special servicer -- was the holder of a $60 million loan secured by a Deed of Trust on the Clift Hotel. He has also served as counsel to CapMark, J.E. Robert Company, Inc., AMRESCO Management Inc. and Midland Loan Servicer in their capacity as special servicers on troubled hotel loans in CMBS pools. For more information, contact Robert Kaplan at 415.984.9673 or rkaplan@jmbm.com.

Martin Orlick

Martin Orlick is a partner in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Marty specializes in representing hospitality industry clients in Americans With Disabilities Act (ADA) compliance and defense. He has represented more than 500 businesses in ADA issues, many of them hotels and restaurants, as well as hotel mixed-use properties. Marty is a member of the American College of Real Estate Lawyers (ACREL) and a frequent speaker on the ADA and other topics. To read Marty's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.comand select "ADA." For more information, please contact Marty Orlick at 415.984.9667 or morlick@jmbm.com.

Scott Brink

Scott Brink is a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® and a partner in JMBM's Labor & Employment Law Department. Scott is a management labor lawyer with more than two decades of experience representing employers in all aspects of labor relations and employment law including union prevention, collective bargaining negotiations, defense of unfair labor practice charges before the NLRB, wrongful discharge litigation, individual and class action employment discrimination and wage-and-hour claims, sexual-harassment litigation, arbitrations, personnel policies, California wage and hour law, and employee discipline and discharge. An experienced trial attorney, Scott has litigated a number of high-profile and complex cases involving a wide range of labor and employment law matters. For more information, contact Scott Brink at RSB@jmbm.com or 310.785.5365.

Travis Gemoets

Travis Gemoets is an experienced trial attorney and represents management in all facets of labor and employment law, including wage/hour class actions, claims of discrimination, harassment, wrongful termination, trade secrets and unfair competition, union/management relations and workplace violence. He is a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group(r), in which capacity he negotiates union contracts and resolves labor disputes throughout the country, defends class action claims, develops strategies for the mass onboarding and separation of employees, and recommends proactive changes to employers' policies and practices in order to minimize potential liability risks. Reach him at 310.785.5387 or tgemoets@jmbm.com.

Mark S. Adams

Mark S. Adams is an experienced trial lawyer and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® and Chinese Investment Group™. He focuses his practice on business litigation including contracts, corporate and partnership disputes, and hospitality disputes and litigation. On behalf of hotel and resort owners, Mark has successfully litigated the termination of long-term, no-cut, hotel management agreements, franchise agreements, fiduciary duty issues, investor-owner disputes, TOT assessments, and more. He has wide-ranging trial experience in a variety of commercial disputes, including complex multi-party litigation and class actions. He has tried numerous cases in state courts, federal courts, and in domestic and international arbitrations, and is a frequent author and speaker on trial practice. Mark's trial wins have been covered by Forbes, Reuters, and other publications. He has obtained two of California's annual 50 largest jury verdicts in the same year. Mark has taken or defended nearly 1,000 depositions throughout North America, Europe and the Middle East. He has been quoted as an expert on noncompete agreements in the Wall Street Journal. For more information, contact Mark at 949. 623.7230 or markadams@jmbm.com.

Bennett Young

Bennett Young is a partner in JMBM's Bankruptcy, Insolvency and Restructurings Group and a senior member of the Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. His clients include lenders, financial institutions, secured and unsecured creditors, distressed investment funds, businesses, receivers, special servicers and creditors' committees. Ben represented the owner of a partially completed multi-billion dollar resort property in the restructuring of its finances and has represented lenders to hotels and casinos. For more information, contact Ben Young at 415.984.9626 or byoung@jmbm.com

Sheri Bonstelle

Sheri Bonstelle is a partner in JMBM's Government, Land Use, Environment and Energy Department, and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group®. She represents owners and developers in land use, zoning, environmental, litigation and construction matters. She manages all aspects of the entitlement process, including representing clients before local and state agencies, commissions and councils. Sheri also represents clients in a variety of land use and real estate litigation matters in state and federal courts, including cases arising under CEQA and other environmental laws. Her hotel experience includes handling the adaptive reuse of an historic office building as a luxury boutique hotel. For more information, please contact Sheri Bonstelle at 310.712.6847 or SBonstelle@jmbm.com.

Kevin McDonnell

Kevin McDonnell is a partner in JMBM's Government, Land Use, Environment and Energy Department, and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group®. Kevin represents developers and owners of hotels in a broad range of land use and zoning issues including entitlements, code enforcement, easements and parking requirements, as well as related Parcel Map and Tract Map subdivision issues. His hospitality experience includes hotels, condo-hotels and mixed-use projects. A registered Civil Engineer and Structural Engineer in California, and a former building official for the City of Los Angeles, Kevin brings unique experience and insight in Zoning and Building Code applications and Code Enforcement issues. For more information, please contact Kevin McDonnell at 310.201.3590 or kkm@jmbm.com.

Jamie Ogden

Jamie Ogden is a tax lawyer at Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell LLP. He advises individuals and businesses on a range of tax planning, tax controversy and estate planning matters. Jamie’s experience includes all tax aspects with respect to the hospitality industry, including acquisitions and dispositions (including Section 1031 exchanges), financing and management agreements. He also serves as lead tax counsel on M&A transactions, financing, internal corporate restructurings and deferred compensation matters. Jamie also works frequently with litigators on the tax aspects of litigation, judgments and settlements. Jamie has extensive experience with foreign compliance matters, including each variation of the IRS amnesty programs. In addition to his experience in private practice, Jamie also brings several years of service from both state and federal government. For more information, contact Jamie at JOgden@jmbm.com or 310.201.3510.

Wei Deng

Wei Deng is General Counsel of Bosen American Capital, Inc. where in addition to his legal duties, he is responsible for sourcing, evaluating and proposing United States investment opportunities to the company. Wei was previously with JMBM, where he focused on transactional and litigation matters.

Jay Thompson

Jay Thompson has extensive experience representing private companies, business owners, family offices and investors in mergers and acquisitions, private equity and venture capital transactions and private securities offerings. Jay serves as general counsel to many of his clients, their management, and board of directors, helping to shape and execute their business strategies, facilitate growth and liquidity, as well as to advise them on day-to-day legal and other strategic issues. He is known for his practical approach to business issues. Contact Jay at JThompson@jmbm.com or 949.623.7258

Marianne Martin

Marianne Martin has nearly fifteen years of experience advising clients on a variety of commercial, financing, bankruptcy, restructuring and M&A matters, with a particular niche dealing with distressed and/or turnaround situations. Her clients frequently include private equity and hedge funds, independent sponsors, family offices, public and private corporations, financial institutions and banks, healthcare-related companies, municipalities and venture capital funds. She has represented clients in various capacities, including as borrowers/debtors, lenders, acquirers, and agents/trustees in negotiating and documenting complex commercial transactions, out-of-court restructuring transactions and advising on purchasing considerations in secondary market debt transactions. Contact Marianne at MMartin@jmbm.com or 310.201.3531

Trevor Countryman

Trevor Countryman is an associate in the firm's Real Estate Department. He advises clients in all aspects of real estate transactions including property acquisitions and dispositions, financing, leasing, development and construction. Trevor's clients range from large funds to individual developers and opportunistic investors, engaged in deals involving office, retail, multi-family, single-family, mixed-use and hotel properties. Contact Trevor Countryman at 310.201.3546 or TCountryman@jmbm.com.

Vanessa Han

Vanessa Han is an associate in JMBM's Corporate group. Vanessa can be reached at VHan@jmbm.com or 310.785.5383

Vince Farhat

Vince Farhat is Chair of JMBM's White Collar Defense and Investigations practice. Vince has extensive jury trial experience and focuses his practice on representing companies and individuals in criminal and civil investigations and prosecutions by government enforcement agencies, as well as complex federal litigation. He also advises companies in connection with complex and sensitive internal investigations. Prior to joining JMBM, Vince served as an assistant United States attorney in the Major Frauds Section of the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of California. Contact Vince Farhat at 310.785.5382 or VFarhat@jmbm.com.

Sarah G. Hartman

Sarah G. Hartman is a partner in JMBM's Litigation Group and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. Sarah is an experienced litigator who advises and represents clients through all aspects of litigation, from inception through trial and appeal. She advises and represents clients in the hospitality industry, including the termination of hotel management agreements and franchise agreements. Sarah also advises and represents clients on women's health technology issues, intellectual property matters, and complex commercial disputes, including breach of fiduciary duty, fraud, breach of contract, unfair competition, products liability, employment litigation, class action defense, false advertising and other complex financial disputes. Contact Sarah Hartman at 949.623.7243 or SGHartman@jmbm.com.

Michael H. Strub, Jr.

Michael H. Strub, Jr. is a partner in JMBM's Litigation Group and a member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of seasoned professionals who have helped clients around the world with more than 4,700 hospitality properties worth more than $125 billion. He is a highly skilled trial and appellate attorney who has handled high-stakes, complex commercial and business cases for 30 years including disputes arising out of hotel construction, lending, and bankruptcy. In addition, he has represented plaintiffs and defendants in business and commercial disputes in a variety of areas. Contact Michael H. Strub, Jr. at 949.623.7233 or MStrub@jmbm.com.

Ask the Hotel Lawyer™ is a quarterly column that I write for JMBM's Global Hospitality Advisor®. If you have a question you would like to submit to Ask the Hotel Lawyer™ please use the comments box below. While your question may not be of sufficient general interest for the column, I will try to respond to you individually if you leave your contact information below.
Jim Butler.