Condo Hotel Lawyer -- What in the world is going on with condo hotels now?
By Jim Butler, Hotel Lawyer | Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
28 November 2006
Condo Hotel Lawyer Las Vegas. On November 30, 2006, I will be participating in the first two opening general sessions of IMN's Symposium on Financing, Developing and Operating Condo Hotels at the Mirage in Las Vegas, Nevada. This will be an interesting opportunity to compare notes and take the current pulse of the industry. Is the bloom off the rose? Can condo hotel deals still be done? Where is the opportunity now? How do you capture it? What are the pitfalls? How do you make a condo hotel deal work today?
Why are more than 550 people coming to a condo hotel symposium in late 2006??? Obviously there is a huge continuing interest in the condo hotel phenomenon, but is the model sustainable in the current environment? Unless there are unique features, great sponsorship and market validation? Where are we? What is happening?
Where are we?
Our perspective. We have been the business and legal advisors to clients on more than 80 hotel-enhanced mixed-use projects, all of which have at least a significant condo hotel element. These deals are in every major market in the U.S., as well as Latin America and Europe.
Here are some thoughts gleaned from our experience:
- The condo hotel market is slowing down. The speculators or "flippers" are all but gone, and some think that they may have accounted for up to 80% of the condo sales in some markets. The eight-hour blow out of Trump's Hawaii project or the one-day sell out Paul Allen's Seattle project are the exception to the rule.
- Many foreign markets may be at early stages of condo hotel development -- say in Mexico, Costa Rica, the Caribbean, Europe and Asia. However, in general, we are in an advanced stage of the cycle in the U.S., and all of my comments here relate to the U.S. market unless otherwise noted.
- Things are "normalizing" but definitely not dying. The level of activity over the past few years has simply been unsustainable. Normalizing is good for the long run and good for quality players.
- Great projects with great sponsorship in good markets will continue to get done. Not all projects will get done. Not all projects should get done.
- In general, most resort markets will be stronger than most urban markets. Many secondary and tertiary markets will languish, except in unique circumstances driven by real consumer demand.
- The condo hotel business is driven by a confluence of factors, including difficulty in financing hotel development, skyrocketing construction costs, premium prices consumers have been willing to pay for convenience . . . but overall, the driving force has been consumer demand for condos.
- This driving force is waning! It is not a melt down. It is a normal cyclical event. It corresponds to the rest of the demand for residential real estate. That is what condos are!!!
What does it all mean?
A residential condo slowdown in the US should not be shocking to anyone. Have you read what is happening to homebuilders' business? Have you looked at recent stock performance for homebuilders? Why would the market for condos in a hotel be that much different?
Actually, it could be different, but experience is demonstrating that condo hotel purchases are more closely related to the residential market where things are slowing down, than to the hotel market where the transaction pace is furious. In fact, more hotels were bought and sold in the first 6 months of 2006 than in all 12 months of the prior year, suggesting that we could be on track to have twice as many hotel purchases this year as last year.
The condo hotel boom is barely starting in China, India, Latin America and Europe. It may have a long way to go there before reaching the "mature" end of the cycle, as we think it has in the United States.
The bottom line.
My friend Taz Brown, VP with Sunburst Marketing and one of the top luxury residential marketing guys in the country, recently said "The field is getting slippery and you need long cleats to run the field, much less score."
That statement pretty well sums it up for the condo hotel situation right now. But there is a bright and enduring future for the hotel-enhanced mixed-use. And this is something that would have been all but impossible without the condo hotel phenomenon. But to take advantage of the situation you have to adopt a new way of thinking as condo hotels morph into a reliable and predictable component of projects. (See Condo Hotels' Enduring Legacy: Hotel-Enhanced Mixed-Use.)
But more on that in the near future . . . and after I take my own temperature at IMN's Condo Hotel Conference in Las Vegas. Maybe I am one of the only people on the planet who thinks the tide has turned and success will be more elusive, calling for new approaches and strategies. (including going back to the Condo Hotel Fundamentals -- 5 Keys to Success!)
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Our Perspective. We represent developers, owners and lenders. We have helped our clients as business and legal advisors on more than $50 billion of hotel transactions, involving more than 1,000 properties all over the world. For more information, please contact Jim Butler at jbutler@jmbm.com or 310.201.3526.
Jim Butler is one of the top hotel lawyers in the world. GOOGLE "hotel lawyer" or "hotel mixed-use" or "condo hotel lawyer" and you will see why.
Jim devotes 100% of his practice to hospitality, representing hotel owners, developers and lenders. Jim leads JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $50 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 1,000 properties located around the globe.
Jim and his team are more than "just" great hotel lawyers. They are also hospitality consultants and business advisors. They are deal makers. They can help find the right operator or capital provider. They know who to call and how to reach them. They are a major gateway of hotel finance, facilitating the flow of capital with their legal skill, hospitality industry knowledge and ability to find the right "fit" for all parts of the capital stack. Because they are part of the very fabric of the hotel industry, they are able to help clients identify key business goals, assemble the right team, strategize the approach to optimize value and then get the deal done.
Jim is frequently quoted as an expert on hotel issues by national and industry publications such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Forbes, BusinessWeek, and Hotel Business. A frequent author and speaker, Jim's books, articles and many expert panel presentations cover topics reflecting his practice, including hotel and hotel-mixed use investment and development, negotiating, re-negotiating or terminating hotel management agreements, acquisition and sale of hospitality properties, hotel finance, complex joint venture and entity structure matters, workouts, as well as many operating and strategic issues.
Jim Butler is a Founding Partner of Jeffer, Mangels, Butler & Marmaro LLP and he is Chairman of the firm's Global Hospitality Group®. If you would like to discuss any hospitality or condo hotel matters, Jim would like to hear from you. Contact him at jbutler@jmbm.com or 310.201.3526. For his views on current industry issues, visit www.HotelLawBlog.com.
