Articles Posted in Outlook and Trends

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Jonathan Falik, CEO of JF Capital Advisors, speaks with David Sudeck, senior member of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® at JMBM’s 2016 Meet the Money® – the national hotel finance and investment conference. They discuss the current hotel market, the availability of capital, and what lenders and capital providers are looking for.

A transcript follows the video. See other videos in this series on the Jeffer Mangels YouTube channel.

David Sudeck: We’re at the 26th Annual Meet the Money Conference. I’m here with Jonathan Falik, CEO and Founder of JF Capital Advisors. Welcome.

Jonathan Falik: Thank you for having me.

David Sudeck: You’ve been a mainstay at Meet the Money® – we appreciate that, by the way.

Jonathan Falik: Well, it’s one of my favorite conferences.

David Sudeck: What’s the temperament like in terms of the marketplace?

Jonathan Falik: People are cautious. Most seem optimistic, but are cautious and are in a learning mode. Everyone’s trying to figure out who’s saying what and who’s thinking what – which is interesting because normally people in our industry think they know everything.

David Sudeck: What are you seeing in the marketplace in general? Let’s talk about the cycle. CONTINUE READING →

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Click here for the latest articles on EB-5 Financing. 
Patrick Hogan, CEO of CMB Regional Centers, speaks with David Sudeck, senior member of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® at JMBM’s 2016 Meet the Money® – the national hotel finance and investment conference. They discuss the evolution of the EB-5 Immigrant Investment Visa Program, indirect jobs, completion guarantees, and taking care of the investor.

A transcript follows the video. See other videos in this series on the Jeffer Mangels YouTube channel.

David Sudeck: Hi, I’m David Sudeck, I’m here at the 26th annual Meet the Money® Conference with Pat Hogan, CEO of CMB Regional Centers. Welcome Pat. And thanks again for participating this year. You were on stage earlier on the CEO panel and you did a fantastic job.

Patrick Hogan: Well thank you, I’m pretty excited to be here. It’s an interesting group of people.

David Sudeck: EB-5 is hot right now. I was wondering if you could tell us a little bit about the roots of CMB, how things have changed from the 1990s to today, and what you see as your current platform.

Patrick Hogan: We started in 1994, before regional centers were ever involved.

The EB-5 program is actually a permanent program. Most people don’t know that because everybody does business with the regional center. But I started in 1997, getting my first regional center, and we actually got an approval in the year 2000. But as you know, fraud crept into that particular program and I just couldn’t take it anymore. It wasn’t really a business at that point in time. So I just said, “Okay, I quit, and until Congress can put some reforms through, I don’t want to do it anymore.”

David Sudeck: So you were pushing for regulation?

Patrick Hogan: Yes, even back then. So, fast forward to today – and we’ve been rocked with all kinds of scandals and things like that within EB-5 – which you would expect. Because if you go back to 2007 there were eleven regional centers, and maybe five of us doing something. And then to go to today where you have 800 regional centers – there’s bound to be some individuals that don’t have a clue.

David Sudeck: Do you have any sense as to how many of those 800 actually do business of any kind? CONTINUE READING →

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13 June 2016

To maintain the confidentiality of hotel data, STR imposes certain restrictions on the hotels for which it will provide competitive set data. The Marriott-Starwood merger is shaking up the world of competitive sets with the result that many owners will need to revise the competitive sets specified in their hotel management agreements.

As Bob Braun explains in the article below, considering the need to identify appropriate hotels for new competitive sets, and negotiation of amendments to hotel management agreements, it would probably be wise to start now on this process.

STR Adopts New Competitive Set Guidelines – Impact on Owners
by
Bob Braun, Hotel Lawyer and Data Security Advisor

The importance of the competitive set

Many hotel management agreements contain performance test standards allowing an owner to terminate a management agreement if the hotel fails to meet specified guidelines, and most of those tests incorporate a “RevPAR Test” – whether the hotel’s revenue per available room is comparable with a set of competitive hotels, its “competitive set.” The RevPAR test typically allows an owner to terminate a management agreement if the hotel’s RevPAR fails to meet a specified percentage, or index, of the competitive set’s RevPAR. Competitive sets can also be used to determine incentive pay or for other measures of performance, as well as projections of potential performance.

The competitive set data is typically provided by a single source: STR, Inc. STR has established itself as a unique provider of supply, demand, and overall performance data for the hotel industry by collecting financial performance and other information from a vast number of hotels in the United States, and using that information to create anonymized measures of performance. CONTINUE READING →

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13 May 2016

Hotel industry fundamentals are good, and will continue to improve. But the hotel industry is being punished by the disconnect between the investment community of Wall Street and actual performance of the hotels on Main Street. More on the nature of this disconnect shortly, but first, here is the current situation as summarized by Vail Brown of STR last week at the 26th annual Los Angeles hotel investment conference, Meet the Money®.

STR_Page_26-1-e1463156527147

Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2016 – 2017

Note that the actual results for 2015 and the forecast for 2016 and 2017 are pretty good – not as spectacular as they have been in some recent past years, but very sound in terms of long-term trends. Notice also that the average national supply growth is still below the 2% level that raises concerns for oversupply. Demand growth is continuing at a rate greater than supply growth, and that is healthy. While occupancy growth is modest, strong ADR growth is driving RevPAR growth at good levels.

Looking beyond the averages into specific markets

National average statistics are most informative when variations from the median are relatively small. Also, averages can be misleading when there are statistical outliers or even significant variations. That seems to be the case currently, with markets like New York City and Houston struggling, and significant localized damage in oil patch markets.

This problem is illustrated by this slide from Vail Brown’s presentation at Meet the Money®. Note that the declining RevPAR growth in New York City and Houston dragged down the entire industry averages. Many industry leaders believe that New York’s problems have also overly influenced the financial community’s perspective on the hospitality industry, incorrectly assuming that industry performance in New York City is representative of the entire industry. CONTINUE READING →

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10 May 2016
Click here for the latest articles on Data Technology, Privacy & Security

One of the great breakout sessions at our recent Meet the Money® hotel conference in Los Angeles was organized by my partner Bob Braun and moderated by Jeff Higley of HotelNewsNow. I was particularly impressed by the panel’s evidence of how costly cybersecurity breaches can be, how much can be done to prevent or limit exposure, and how reasonable the cost can be for a pro-active approach.

Here is Bob Braun’s summary of this panel last week in Los Angeles. This is a compelling call for an ounce of prevention. . .

5 Cybersecurity takeaways from Meet the Money®
by
Bob Braun, Hotel Lawyer and Data Security Advisor

Meet the Money® changes with the times, and the 2016 conference showcased the first panel on Cybersecurity in the hospitality industry – “Who’s Knocking at Your Digital Door,” featuring Bob Braun, from JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group and Co-Chair of the Firm’s Cybersecurity and Privacy Group; Bob Justus, of Optiv Security; Brad Maryman, from Maryman & Associates; Christian Ryan, from MARSH; and Kevin Shamoun, from Zeamster.  Jeff Higley, of STR/HotelNewsNow.com moderated the panel.

The panelists, representing technical, legal law, law enforcement, insurance and payment systems, identified key cybersecurity challenges for the hospitality industry.  Five key takeaways were:

  • Compliance does not equal security. Each of the panelists agreed that while meeting legal and business requirements is essential, compliance does not necessarily achieve real cybersecurity — completing checkboxes on a task list or questionnaire is only a first step. The panelists noted that each of the major hotel breaches in the last year, which involved every major hotel chain, implicated point of service credit card systems that complied with industry standards.  Hotels and hotel companies need to look beyond complying with standardized requirements and has to evaluate their own risk profile and apply meaningful security plans.
  • Informed response is better than instant response. Too many organizations make the mistake of reacting before they think, especially when reporting a breach. Data breaches can be complicated matters, and it is essential to understand the scope of the breach, the data and individuals involved, and how a firm can remediate the source of the problem before disclosure. There is no question that speed is important, but some breaches do not require notification, while acting without ascertaining the facts can require multiple notifications, which is damaging to reputation and sends the wrong message.
  • Credit cards are not the only risk. While much focus is placed on the theft of credit card numbers, hotels must consider other risks. Hotels and hotel companies hold massive amounts of sensitive personal information that can be used to steal a guest’s identity.  Moreover, hotels need to consider more than data; the interconnection of systems means that breaking into a financial structure can give a hacker access to door locks, heating and air conditioning systems, electrical, plumbing and other key structural and physical parts of the hotel.  What would happen if a hacker flooded a hotel, or opened the doors?  This damage can far exceed the damage from lost credit cards, and cause untold damage to the hotel, its brand and owners.

CONTINUE READING →

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07 May 2016

Meet the Money® 2016 – Deals, dialog and learning
Conference presentations now available

JMBM’s Meet the Money® 2016, completed its 26th national hotel finance and investment conference this week in Los Angeles.

While all seem to agree that hotel fundamentals remain strong and that interest rates will remain low in the immediate future, hotel industry leaders expressed more caution than in recent years. They are still doing deals – particularly those that fit into established strategies. In fact, there are a number of creative deals going on, of all sizes, and it is always exciting to hear from so many developers and capital providers who are enthusiastic about their work and the industry.

Many expressed a healthy respect for stricter underwriting and shared the lessons learned from the Great Recession. All our speakers and participants exchanged perspectives, ideas, business cards and lots of good stories.

Presentations available from Vail Brown of STR, Suzanne Mellen of HVS, Mike Cahill of LIIC and HREC, Dan Lesser of LW Hospitality Advisors, Alan Reay of Atlas Hospitality, and Bill Linehan of RLHC

Select presentations from Meet the Money® 2016 can be found on HotelLawyer.com. Individual presentations include: CONTINUE READING →

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To download the LIIC Top Ten presentation, click here.

(Denver, CO) For well over a decade, the members of the hotel industry’s preeminent think tank, “LIIC – The Lodging Industry Investment Council,” are annually surveyed to develop a list of the major hotel investment opportunities and challenges for the coming year. This exhaustive survey results in the LIIC Top Ten; a highly regarded profile of investment sentiment and attitudes for the lodging industry for the forthcoming 12 months. Altogether, the members of LIIC represent direct acquisition and disposition control of well over $40 billion of lodging real estate.

Members are highly active and have the pulse of the market, with 57% of LIIC hotel investors having successfully purchased a hotel in the last 12 months and 38% currently having additional acquisitions under a purchase and sale contract.

The hospitality industry’s most influential investors, lenders, corporate real estate executives, REIT’s, public hotel companies, brokers and significant lodging equity sources are represented on the Council. LIIC serves as the leading industry think tank for the lodging business (www.liic.org).

Mike Cahill, LIIC co-chairman, produced this year’s survey (www.mikecahill.com). Mr. Cahill is CEO and Founder of HREC – Hospitality Real Estate Counselors, a leading international hotel and casino advisory and brokerage firm (15 offices nationwide) specializing in lodging property sales, debt financing, consulting, appraisals and litigation support (www.hrec.com). Kyle Halbrook & Nate Shartar, Associates in HREC’s Denver office, assisted throughout the process.

2016 Top Ten LIIC Survey Results:

1. Hotel Investors: Active yet Cautious in Underwriting and Pricing: In a striking reversal from 2015’s unbridled optimism, the 2016 results reveal that investors are now underwriting more carefully and pricing an uncertain future into their acquisition bids. However, market participants, as a whole, remain positive and active.

2. Movement in the Hotel Real Estate Cycle?: After the past two years, when investors believed we were “real estate cycle stagnant” and solidly grounded in the 5th to 6th innings of the current lodging investment cycle, the 2016 survey is sensing strong movement. Today, 68% believe we have moved along to the 7th/8th innings and 17% go further, believing we are in the 9th inning. Similarly, 42% believe hotel real estate values peaked in 2015 and 28% believe values are currently peaking in 2016. When asked the same concept but worded differently, the current survey indicated 2006 (34%) was the most similar year in past cycle, with 2007 following closely behind at 28%. CONTINUE READING →

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27 January 2016

Hotel Lawyers with first signs of a sea change in investor sentiment about the hotel sector

As our team of hotel lawyers returns from the Americas Lodging Investment Summit (or ALIS) in Los Angeles, we all noticed a big change. This is the first industry conference since the beginning of the recovery from the Great Recession where we have seen a clear turnaround in hotel investor sentiment that seems to be gaining traction. Unfortunately it is a negative turnaround.

Until now, the discussions have always been about how long the recovery will last (what inning are we in)? And how high values and fundamentals will go before they peak and start down in the next cycle. Not so much this time.

The irony is that hotel industry fundamentals remain sound and continue to improve, although perhaps a bit more slowly. But the downturn in the price of hotel REIT and C-corp stocks (many are about half of their value a year ago) now seems to be shaping an important part of the industry psyche and investment mindset. In this scenario, Wall Street is driving Main Street, instead of the other way around. In other words, the jaundiced perspective of Wall Street is having a real world effect on the hotel industry.

What is happening on Wall Street?

Here is how it works according to one industry analyst:

  • Wall Street investors became infatuated with hotel REITs and stocks because of record growth rate in RevPAR and other indicators as the industry recovered from the Great Recession.
  • For decades, an annual RevPAR growth rate of 5% or 6% was remarkable, perhaps record-setting.
  • For several years in a row, hotel RevPAR growth in many markets has equaled or exceeded the 5% or 6% records, and Wall Street loved it.
  • Now, that we are back to peak levels (or near there in most markets), growth rates are slowing a bit. And the prospect of a “mere” 4% RevPAR growth rate is freaking out Wall Street investors . . . or at least making them think that they should direct their attention elsewhere where growth rates are more robust.

CONTINUE READING →

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11 January 2016

Click here for the latest articles on Data Technology, Privacy & Security.

What part do hotel owners play in preventing a cyberattack and the resulting data breach? The hospitality industry relies on its reputation for confidence, and that confidence can be shattered when guests learn that their private information has been compromised. What can hotel owners do and how should they work with brands and management to prevent a cyberattack?

In the article below, my partner, Bob Braun reminds hotel owners that because they are generally required to indemnify brands and managers for costs the managers and brands incur – which could include a costly data breach – it is in the owners’ best interests to have a comprehensive plan in place.  This article first appeared in Hotel Business Review in December 2015, and is reprinted with permission from www.hotelexecutive.com.
Not Just Heads in Beds – Cybersecurity for Hotel Owners

by
Bob Braun, Hotel Lawyer and Data Security Advisor

The basics of the hotel business have traditionally been simple: good location, fair prices, appropriate amenities and good service were the keys to success. While those factors are important today, hotels are no longer simply a “heads in beds” business; hotels are increasingly brand-oriented. Brands focus not only on the services and products they sell, but on developing the perception and recognition of the brand associated with those goods and services. That means that hotels, like all brands, need to focus more and more on understanding their customers and how to reach them, whether through loyalty programs, advertising, social media or otherwise.

The upshot of the focus on branding in the hospitality business is that hotels gather lots of information about their guests, ranging from credit card data to addresses, phone numbers, travel plans and preferences, birthdays, and more – all of which are valuable not just to the hotel brands and operators, but to cyberthieves. While hotel companies have understood this for years, they are, along with other customer-intensive industries, learning that collecting that information comes with responsibilities and, possibly, liability.

Cybercrime is big business. In 2014, there were 42.8 million detected security incidents (and, most likely, many more that were never discovered). Estimates of annual cost of cybercrime to the global economy ranges from $375 billion to as much as $575 billion as companies face increased vulnerability, ranging from greater technology available to cybercriminals and new types of cybercrime, like crypto-ransom. Cybercriminals began targeting hotels years ago. In a 2010, a Forbes magazine article quoted Nicholas Percoco, who said that “The hospitality industry was the flavor of the year for cybercrime. These companies have a lot of data, there are easy ways in and the intrusions can take a very long time to detect.” The lesson for hotel owners is that they cannot stand idly by – hotel owners must be proactive by instituting best practices in their own operations, requiring the same from managers, and obtaining insurance coverage to fund the inevitable costs of a breach.

The Wyndham Case

The threat to the hospitality industry became particularly evident in the recent federal court case brought by the Federal Trade Commission (the FTC) against Wyndham Hotels. On August 24, 2015, the Third Circuit United States Court of Appeals issued its ruling in the case FTC v. Wyndham Worldwide Corporation. The case was highly anticipated by the data security community generally for its expected ruling on the authority of the Federal Trade Commission to regulate data security standards, but nowhere was the anticipation more keen than in the hospitality industry. After all, this decision didn’t deal with retailers, banks or dating sites – it addressed a major hotel player and, by implication, all operators, brands and owners in the industry. The decision should be a wake-up call to hotel owners because, as described below, hotel owners may ultimately bear the cost of data breaches involving their hotels. Owners should look at the Wyndham decision as an opportunity to consider whether their brands and managers have taken the steps necessary to protect guests and, ultimately, the hotel owner.

CONTINUE READING →

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23 November 2015

As the biggest merger in the history of the hospitality industry,  the Marriott-Starwood merger, is grabbing headlines worldwide. Most of the recent press has focused on the sheer size of the potential transaction. But in his article below, my partner and hotel lawyer Bob Braun, considers the practical impact of the merger on hotel owners, franchisees and developers. With the loss of the Starwood family of brands as an independent and significant competitive force in the industry, the merger will bring mixed blessings to stakeholders.

The Marriott-Starwood merger – Is bigger really better?
Impact of the merger on hotel owners, franchisees and developers
by
Robert E. Braun | Hotel Lawyer

The proposed merger between Marriott and Starwood will, by all accounts, create a behemoth in the hotel industry. If the merger goes through as planned, the combined company will be the world’s largest hotel company, with more than 5,500 hotels under management or franchise, 1.1 million hotel rooms around the world, 30 hotel brands and up to 75 million hotel loyalty members.

While commentators have speculated as to whether the combined entity will benefit consumers, stockholders or frequent guests, little has been said about how it could impact hotel owners, franchisees and developers currently in either of the brand families or looking to them in the future. No one will really know until after the merger (if it is, in fact consummated, and there are a variety of hurdles to closing such a complex transaction), but the JMBM Global Hospitality Group has negotiated many hundreds of franchise agreements, including agreements with virtually every major hotel brand, and we believe hotel owners should consider a few important factors:

Will Owners Have Fewer Choices? The first, and most obvious, impact on any potential owner is that the field has been reduced by a significant player. Thirty brands (31, if we include the new Grand Sheraton brand) may remain, but in fact they will be operated by a single entity, and that entity will decide on what brands will be available in a given market. Moreover, the differences between particular brands in a given price or quality segment are likely to be reduced. How long, for example, will Sheraton or Le Meridien hotels be markedly different from Marriott or Renaissance properties? Where will they be positioned relative to other brands in the new combined family?

Any hotel owner, franchisee or investor should also recognize that the Marriott-Starwood merger might only be the first of its kind. Many analysts predict that other brands will merge to create the size and influence that will allow them better to compete with the largest hotel branding company in the world. If that happens – and transactions like this seem to occur in bunches – owners will have even fewer choices.

Will Owners Have Reduced Leverage? The immediate corollary to fewer choices is reduced leverage. A hotel owner will no longer be able to create a competition between two of the largest players in the business; Marriott/Starwood is unlikely to bid against itself for management or franchise opportunities.

This challenge is likely to extend beyond just the merger of Marriott and Starwood. Other major brands – Intercontinental Hotel Group, Hilton Hotels, Hyatt Hotels to name a few – will have greater bargaining power when negotiating with owners because there will simply be fewer competing companies.

Will Hotel Companies be Less Flexible? A common concern among hotel owners is the desire for their brands to acknowledge the unique qualities of each property. While some franchised or branded businesses can achieve a high degree of uniformity, hotels are special, and hotel owners need brands to recognize that. As much as brands strive to create a consistent experience at all properties operating under the same name, local differences – whether it be location, common amenities, zoning, legal restrictions, competition or otherwise – have to be addressed. But larger companies have greater reasons to increase efficiency and reduce variations between different properties, and hotel owners may have difficulty ensuring that local needs are met.

Will New Players Step Into the Breach? At the same time, it may be possible for new, smaller and more nimble brands to make inroads in this market. If there is less differentiation between different flags, if the larger players are less flexible, the smaller players may find inroads and opportunities that are closed to them now. It’s even possible that Marriott-Starwood may choose to shed some brands, for antitrust or business reasons, giving rise to new competition.

The JMBM Global Hospitality Group® believes that hotel owners should be mindful of these concerns when considering their branding opportunities, and when negotiating with brands. Our practice focuses on leveling the playing field between brands and owners, and creating a lasting, functional relationship between them. While this merger may lead to a new set of rules for the road, we are ready to help our clients understand the new realities navigate the new landscape.

CONTINUE READING →

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