Articles Posted in Outlook and Trends

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
23 March 2007
Hospitality Lawyer on “LIFESTYLE” hotel mixed-use development. Hotel mixed-use has emerged as one of the few ways hotel developers may be able to make a new development economically feasible, with skyrocketing construction costs. It has also become one of the hottest things going as developers of other real estate uses (shopping centers, office, retail, residential and entertainment) discover the big “IRR Premiums” that may be harvested from well-planned and tightly integrated hotel mixed-use projects. (See, my earlier postings on www.HotelLawBlog.com from The Hotel Developers Conference® in Rancho Mirage. about how green hotels may be in all our futures, hotel mixed-use is the pass key to unlocking new development and bigger profits, and the perspectives of the most successful leaders in hotel mixed-use today)

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
13 March 2007
Hotel lawyer on hotel mixed-use development. “Hotel Mixed-Use” . . . and how it can be the pass key to unlocking both new development and bigger profits was the entire focus of The Hotel Developers Conference™ in Rancho Mirage. Creative ideas flowed and mixed. Nuggets of valuable insight were gathered. Introductions were made. Deals were done. The opening session of The Hotel Developers Conference™ was covered in my last posting on www.HotelLawBlog.com. And here’s what happened in the second full day.

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
6 March 2007
Hotel lawyer on hotel industry trends. What’s the price of gasoline have to do with the future of the lodging industry? Some pretty interesting research tells us “More than you might think”!

In a recent posting on www.HotelLawBlog, I talked about the intimate relationship between the U.S. economy and the lodging industry. You may recall that cited studies of the past 30 years show that for more than 24 years there was a remarkable statistical correlation of 1.2 between U.S. Real GDP and the demand for hotel room nights at hotel in the United States. That means that if the U.S. economy grew by 1%, then lodging demand (i.e. demand for hotel room nights) grew by 1.2%. And although the correlation is a little lower now (around .7), there is still a very strong correlation between the Real GDP and the lodging industry.. (For more details see, As goes the economy, so goes the hospitality industry — the ineluctable elasticity of demand!)

I was quite surprised by the number of www.HotelLawBlog.com readers who sent me emails commenting on that recent blog. It is always nice to know that so many of you actually read these postings. But several of you wondered out loud — or commented — that you thought the cost of petroleum or perhaps some other items might also have a strong correlation with the lodging industry. As to the impact of petroleum prices, there is a strong correlation. As to other factors, there appears to be little or no correlation. So the price of gasoline actually does have a lot to do with the future of the lodging industry. How much impact? Let’s take a look.

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com

4 March 2007
Hotel lawyer on hotel and hotel mixed-use development. Wasn’t it only “yesterday” that a few hundred million dollars seemed like a lot of money and made the headlines? After Blackstone’s $39 billion purchase of Equity Office Properties deal was topped in deal size by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts’ bid for Texas Pacific Group (TXU) for about $45 billion, it almost seems like everyone yawns at “mere” billion dollar deals, much less something smaller. For example, did you notice any major headlines in the past couple of weeks about Winston Hotels being bought by Wilbur Investment for $850 million, or Apple Hospitality being bought by ING Clarion Partners for $890 million, or Hilton selling its Scandic Hotel chain to a private equity group for about $1.1 billion?

Nobody I know was particularly excited about these deals despite their size, which would have claimed headlines only a year ago. As I have commented before on www.HotelLawBlog.com, it really does seem that “Size no longer matters . . . at least in the hotel industry.”

But what does the big dollar focus on hospitality mean from private equity and celebrities– as we have discussed with such players as Bill Gates and Prince Al Waleed, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley in its acquisition of CNL Hotels & Resorts, Barry Sternlicht on his investments in China and India, as well as his launch of new brands such as the “1” and the Crillon, Paul Allen, Shaquille O’Neal, Donald Trump, Magic Johnson, Andre Agassi and Seffi Graf?

By themselves, these events show that smart money has tremendous confidence in the U.S. economy and in the lodging sector. They also validate the industry metrics of sustained profits and continued good times for at least several more years. But, combined with a few other factors, they also reaffirm the general belief that this is a great time to be developing hotels — particularly in a hotel mixed-use context — if it is done well. Let’s take a look at this and consider if we can get it right this time!

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
26 February 2007
Hospitality Lawyer on state of the hotel industry and its prospects. We are enjoying great times in the hospitality industry and the prospects are excellent that the good times will continue for at least several more years. But how good is it, and how good can it get? Let’s take a look!

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
13 February 2007
Hotel lawyer on the future of the hotel industry. Another milestone has been laid. The Board of Directors of Four Seasons Hotels Inc. — a public company — has formally accepted a $3.4 billion ($82 per share) purchase offer which surfaced on November 6, 2006 by a group of investors whose principals include Bill Gates, the Prince, and Isadore Sharpe, CEO of Four Seasons. It’s a fascinating deal! But what does it really mean?

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
8 February 2007
Hotel Lawyer on hotel fundamentals. One of the things that has fascinated me about the hospitality industry for more than 20 years now, is the close — almost intimate — relationship of industry performance to the U.S. economy’s performance. Some might say this is intuitive, that when the economy does well, all business does well. But that is not always true. There are some businesses which do better in hard times, like discount and bargain stores, and there are some that seem impervious, like ultra luxury goods. However the relationship of the lodging industry’s performance to the general economy, has been carefully documented by the experts, and it is worth noting. The implications are interesting.

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
1 February 2007
Yesterday, I shared the first in a series of reports and observations from the recent Los Angeles hotel investment conference (ALIS). You may find it as interesting as I do to hear industry leaders describe current issue in their own words. If so, check out yesterday’s posting: “Notable quotables from hotel industry thought leaders 2007.”
But today, I would like to take a different approach, reflecting my personal observations on the state of the hotel industry taken from a number of Conference panels, a lot of one-on-one meetings with industry leaders, and a few hours with the Lodging Industry Investment Council — the hotel industry’s think tank.

Captured here for www.HotelLawBlog.com is my “Hotel Industry Snapshot” as of February 1, 2007 — a perspective on the issues and developments that seemed to be the most important around the ALIS Conference. They may portend future opportunities . . . or challenges to be overcome. You will probably hear a lot more about them in the near future.

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
31 January 2007
Hotel Lawyer on what the top names in the industry are saying now. In my recent blog entries, we have looked at how every hospitality company could be in play — from InterContinental Hotels to Marriott, Hilton and Starwood, the most interesting features of 2006, explored financing hotel projects in 2007, and talked about the explosion of international hotel investment — particularly in places like Mexico, Costa Rica, the Caribbean, China, India, and Europe.

But last week, I attended the Los Angeles hotel investment conference (ALIS) and promised to report on the pulse of the hotel industry. So here is the first followup on that promise — and the first in a series of reports on www.HotelLawyerBlog.com about what’s going on in the industry. This report is my collection of notable quotes I captured from hotel industry thought leaders at the ALIS Conference.

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Author of www.HotelLawBlog.com
29 January 2007
Hotel lawyer on private equity investments in the hotel industry. In my most recent article, I talked about two deals that could profoundly affect the very makeup and direction of the hotel industry. (See, “Two deals that may change the lodging world forever“). Of course, these two transactions are the leveraged buyouts of Equity Office Properties (EOP) and CNL Hotels & Resorts (CHL).

With recent takeover rumors circling InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), I have recently written on www.HotelLawBlog.com about what these rumors mean. (See, “What do the InterContinental takeover rumors mean? Why IHG? Why now? Who will win the bid?“) Some have been saying recently that even Hilton is now on the block. Are the CNL and EOP deals the harbinger for the entire hotel industry — that every major hotel company could be in play?

Here’s why size may no longer impose any limit on acquisitions. . . and why Marriott, Hilton, Starwood, and all the other hotel companies could be up for grabs.

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