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Hotel Lawyers -- featured subjects and articles
Meet the Money® 2014

ADA defense and compliance

EB-5 financing

Workouts, bankruptcies & receiverships

Hotel Management Agreements

Hotel Franchise & License Agreements

Hotel industry trends

This is Jim Butler, author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer. Please contact me at Jim Butler at jbutler@jmbm.com or 310.201.3526.

Published on:

16 September 2014

Click here for the latest articles on ADA Compliance and Defense.

 

The recent Uber lawsuit

On September 9, 2014, Uber Technologies was sued in Federal Court in San Francisco for violating the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and California’s Unruh Act. The suit arose from the claim that UberX drivers refused to allow blind riders to bring their guide dogs. For a copy of the complaint, click here to see Natl Federation of the Blind v. Uber Technologies.

This is just the latest in an long history of complaints or enforcement actions involving the legal requirements concerning “service animals” under the ADA and corresponding state laws such as California’s Unruh Act.

Why public facilities are subject to these service animal rules

Like Uber taxis, all hotels, restaurants, spas, retail facilities, movie theatres, and sports and entertainment venues are places of public accommodation. As such, they are expressly subject to the ADA and corresponding state laws.

Because so many people ask us about the “service animal” issues, we thought it might be helpful to provide our industry friends with some guidelines on the major questions in this area through a series of frequently asked questions or FAQs about this subject.
FAQs about the ADA’s legal requirements for service animals

by

Jim Butler & Marty Orlick
ADA Defense & Compliance Lawyers

 

Here are some of the most Frequently Asked Questions on service animal issues under the Americans with Disabilities Act or ADA.

What qualifies as a “service animal?”

Businesses . . . may ask only two questions of individuals regarding their service animals . . .
Under the ADA, a dog or miniature horse that “is individually trained to do work or perform tasks for the benefit of an individual with a disability” qualifies as a service animal. The “work” or “tasks” performed by a service animal must be directly related to the individual’s disability. For example, the service animal might pull a wheelchair, guide a visually impaired person, or assist an individual with psychiatric disabilities.

Comfort animals and pets are NOT service animals. Comfort animals merely provide emotional support and are not individually trained to assist with a disability.

What can you ask a customer who enters your business with an animal?

Businesses and their representatives who come in contact with the public may ask only two questions of individuals regarding their service animals: CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

7 September 2014

Click here for the latest articles on EB-5 Financing. 

EB-5 Visas and China “Retrogression” – What’s it all about?

by

Jim Butler and Jonathan Bloch
Partners, Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell LLP

In the past, when China exceeded its 7% allocation of US Immigrant Investor Visas (EB-5 visas), Chinese applicants were permitted to take advantage of unused EB-5 visas allotted to other countries. But as of the last week of August 2014, the US State Department decided that the issuance of new EB-5 visas to Chinese applicants will be frozen or “retrogress” (move backward) until October 1, 2014, when the new fiscal year starts.

At that time, a new visa quota of 10,000 EB-5 visas (for all countries) will become available for the next fiscal year through September 30, 2015. China will again be allotted only 7% of these visas but most experts expect that Chinese investors will be permitted to access visas unused by other countries in accordance with practice over the past 3 years. This means that the 10,000 visa cut-off date likely will be reached much earlier in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2015, and this may significantly affect fundraising in 2014 and 2015.

EB-5 Visas and China “Retrogression” – What it means to you

If you have a new hotel development in the pipeline and you are on the fence about EB-5 financing, now is the time to act!

Why should this latest development in EB-5 financing concern you — a mere 5 week “freeze” on the issuance of EB-5 investment visas for China? If you want to use EB-5 financing as part of your capital stack for a project in 2015, it should concern you plenty for the following reasons:

  • China has been the dominant source of EB-5 capital for the last 3 years — more than a staggering 70% of EB-5 visa applications.
  • The freeze will only affect immigrants filing I-526 applications who are born in Mainland China. Of course, over time, other countries may fill any shortfall of investors from Mainland China but that may take 2-3 years or longer to develop the EB-5 infrastructure that makes foreigners aware of the program, motivates them to immigrate to the US and provides  EB-5 “capital delivery” system (marketing agents, immigration attorneys and the like) that can match China.
  • Anything that delays, retrogresses, or threatens the certainty of EB-5 financing from China creates uncertainty that is bad for all participants in the EB-5 financing world — the Chinese investors, US developers, and the communities that benefit from the realization of new projects, new jobs for US citizens, and economic stimulus.
  • If the EB-5 issues are not fixed quickly, an irreplaceable source of financing could be lost for US developers, communities may lose the benefit of major new projects (from hotels to conference centers and port facilities), Americans will forfeit hundreds of thousands of new jobs each year, and we will lose a critical source of highly-educated, wealthy immigrant talent as America faces a critical labor shortage of skilled workers in the near future.

Based on our experience of assisting developers with EB-5 financing for more than 60 projects, we are confident that there are both short term and longer term solutions to these problems which are discussed at the end of this article. But first, we need to recap the background and setting for the EB-5 program. CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

25 August 2014

Lately, it seems like everyone wants to buy — or sell — an independent hotel management company. And this may be one of the best times to do so in a long while. Here are some thoughts on this timely subject by two of our hotel lawyers who have just completed a successful sale of an independent operator.
Why this may be the time to buy or sell a hotel management company
A hot trend and five key issues
by
Guy Maisnik | Hotel Lawyers

One of the hottest trends right now is buying (or selling) independent hotel management companies. The demand is coming from all directions – existing management companies, investment funds and foreign buyers. Existing management companies are scrambling for market share, economies of scale and strategic markets. Investment funds are looking for the direct control over their hotel investments through a captive management company as well as attractive economic returns that a great independent operator can achieve with limited capital investment and risk compared to hotel investment. And foreign owners share many of these goals, and see the acquisition of a hotel management company as a solid way of entering into the hotel market in the United States.

From the potential seller’s standpoint, the timing may be optimal for a sale at this point in the cycle. A management company’ sale price is typically negotiated as a multiple of earnings. Traditionally, this multiple is four to six times earnings before interest and taxes, after making adjustments for expenses that would not continue to the buyer, and deducting from the price any interest-bearing debt that the buyer assumes. However, in this market, hotel management companies with a proven track record of performance, and a high quality (sustainable) earnings stream  can command a price well in excess of six times earnings before interest and taxes with multiple suitors. The demand is there, but the process is complex.

And here are five key issues or questions you should consider before buying or selling a hotel management company. CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

19 August 2014

Asians love California, particularly Southern California! They love it as a place to live, buy homes, invest, go to school, and run their businesses. In June, we talked about the close affinity between China and Los Angeles County as revealed by a new report. Now there is yet another report documenting how Asians love Orange County.

Why? The report does not tell us that, but certainly Asians are attracted to California for the same reasons they been settling here for more than a century: proximity, climate, opportunity, and the largest communities of Asians outside of Asia.

News about Asians in Orange County

Recently, Los Angeles Times reporters Anh Do and Christopher Goffard reported on a phenomenon which we at JMBM are well aware: Asians want to live, work, study and invest in Orange County, California.

JMBM has served Orange County’s Asian community for more than 30 years. From our office in Irvine, members of JMBM’s Chinese Investment Group® and Global Hospitality Group® are active participants in Orange County’s Asian business community where we represent Asian investors, developers, business owners, as well as new residents – primarily from China – seeking to invest in California businesses and buy luxury homes in Orange County’s prestigious neighborhoods.

New Study on Asians in Orange County

The Times article cites “A Community of Contrasts”, a study published by Asian Americans Advancing Justice, and reports the following key findings: CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

18 August 2014

Today, the Hotel Lawyers in JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group announced our 25th Annual Meet the Money® conference to be held May 4-6, 2015, at the Sheraton LAX. It’s hard to believe we are marking the 25th year of getting together with our friends in the industry for a couple of days where all participants share information, meet leaders in the industry and make deals. It will be an exciting conference and if you have not joined us at Meet the Money® in the past, we hope you will come find out what all the buzz is about in 2015! If you are a regular participant, I promise that 2015 will not disappoint!

 

JMBM’s Meet the Money® marks its 25th anniversary in 2015
National Hotel Finance & Investment Conference – May 4-6, 2015 in Los Angeles

LOS ANGELES – Meet the Money®, the premier national hotel finance and investment conference will convene for its 25th annual event on May 4-6, 2015 in Los Angeles. Since 1990, the conference has connected attendees with the industry’s top executives and leaders.

“When we established Meet the Money® 25 years ago, our purpose was to provide hotel developers and owners with a forum to meet capital providers and to gain insight on debt and equity financing,” said Jim Butler, Chairman of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group®. “This milestone signifies our continued commitment to that vision.”

Each year, Meet the Money® brings together 400 hospitality executives and capital providers to discuss the latest trends in hotel finance in a casual and lively atmosphere.  Meet the Money® 2015 will provide the latest information on hotel industry fundamentals and numerous panel discussions by the industry’s top thought leaders and innovators. The conference will include two evening receptions, two breakfasts and lunches, and plenty of networking time to meet leaders and make deals. CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

 
23 July 2017
Click here for the latest articles on EB-5 Financing.

This article is an updated version of the one that was originally published on HotelLawBlog.com on 30 July 2014.
Why you do NOT want to form your own regional center
by
Jim Butler, Hotel & EB-5 Finance Lawyer

 

How should developers pursue EB-5 financing?

Although the EB-5 immigrant visa program has been around since 1990, the current trend of using it as a source of financing for hotel and other real estate started 20 years later – around 2010. We worked on one of the first hotel EB-5 financings for the W Hotel & Residences in Hollywood, and we have since worked on more than 100 EB-5 projects all over the country. Now, the use of EB-5 financing for construction has gone mainstream. High profile EB-5 financing closings include $450 million for the Century Plaza Los Angeles, $100 million for the Ritz Carlton & JW Marriott in downtown Los Angeles, $150 million for the Waldorf Astoria in Beverly Hills, and $1 billion for the Silverstein project at the World Trade Center in New York City (with a Four Seasons Hotel).

As a growing number of savvy hotel developers hurry to assess the EB-5 financing opportunity, they frequently receive conflicting advice as to the best way to pursue EB-5 financing. Many immigration lawyers and advisors tout the advantages of the developer forming its own regional center – basically to shave a few points off the all-in cost of EB-5 financing.

This advice may work well for the EB-5 advisors (in that they may get $100,000 or more in fees) and for certain hotel developers. But for most of the hotel developers we know, forming a captive regional center is a bad idea. This article should provide a note of caution for developers considering this course.

Based on our extensive experience with financing hotel development from EB-5 funding sources, we believe that the answer for most hotel developers will be to obtain “preferred” status for themselves and their projects – if they can do so – and to tap into the very best established EB-5 funding sources. For more on this approach, see “Development financing: How to win the race for EB-5 capital.”

Restricted capacity in channels for accessing EB-5 capital

As hotel developers compete in a very crowded field seeking the finite amount of EB-5 funding available each fiscal year (because there are only 10,000 visas available per year), there is something of a “race” to gain access to the limited resources for tapping EB-5 capital. The restricted capacity is the limited bandwidth of the channels for accessing the pipeline of foreign investors (experienced regional centers and marketing agents). And, increasingly, there are also limits on foreign investors’ interest and ability in the US program due to foreign capital flow restrictions and other countries (such as Canada, Australia and Great Britain) offering competing programs to attract the same investors with fast-track programs to visas and citizenship. The channels for bringing the EB-5 investor money to US developers have simply not been able to keep pace with the demand.

As some indication of the explosive growth straining the existing capacity of the system, 126 visas were issued under EB-5 in 2004 and that number exceeded or pressed against the maximum statutory limit of 10,000 visas in 2014, 2015 and 2016. Most of the interest in the program has manifested itself since 2010.

Explosion of new regional centers – most of which have no fund-raising experience

A regional center is an entity that has received formal approval by the US immigration service (the USCIS) of an application to be designated as such. As of July 3, 2017, approximately 851 regional centers have been approved by the USCIS, but a small percentage of those have ever raised significant EB-5 financing, much less gotten their immigrant investors’ permanent visa approvals through the I-829 process.

Industry experts estimate that more than 85% of the total dollar amount of all EB-5 funding since 1990 has been raised by fewer than (the top) 10% of the regional centers. In other words, there is an extreme concentration of experience and success amongst a very small number of the regional centers.

Why have a virtual handful of regional centers raised such a vast portion of the EB-5 funding? The top regional centers have been established for some time, have a strong infrastructure in both the United States and places where there is already an awareness of the EB-5 program opportunity and strong interest in using EB-5 to migrate to the United States – places such as China and hot new markets such as Vietnam, Korea, Indonesia, Latin America and parts of the Middle East. These established regional centers have built reliable marketing organizations, and have worked out procedures, documentation, and logistics to evaluate new EB-5 projects.

A substantial amount of work is required to underwrite a deal, consummate arrangements with the developer, prepare the project marketing program and materials, sell projects overseas, and get the funds released for deployment by the project. In addition to the transaction work of making deals and raising capital, the regional center must also insure compliance with securities and immigration laws. And above all, the regional center must establish a track record of success in obtaining permanent visas for its EB-5 investors, because the regional center’s ability to raise capital in the future will depend upon being able to establish a high probability of success in getting green cards for its projects based on its prior performance.

A regional center approval from the USCIS is akin to a license to participate in the EB-5 chain of capital raising. It is only the first step in a long and difficult process of establishing a successful capital-raising machine. While status as an approved regional center enables increased job count for projects handled by the center (by counting direct, indirect, and induced jobs), it does not confirm any ability or experience to raise funds. And the strongest regional centers that have successfully closed EB-5 deals have been committed to the business for years. They also have a long line of developers who want to employ their services. These veteran organizations have established (and maintain) a regular operating presence in China and other countries, built a strong and permanent marketing organization in these countries, grown investor demand for their offerings based on their track record of getting visas for investors, and delivered funding on their promises.

Daunting hurdles for new regional centers

Newcomers to EB-5 funding find competition with the established regional centers to be daunting. The EB-5 investors want to know the track record of the regional center marketing a project. What percentage of their investors have gotten their green card? How many have failed? How many have been deported after moving to the US?

The best marketing agents to present projects to investors want to work for the best and most established regional centers. Why should they try to compete with established track records, duplicate organizational structure, and teach someone about the business?

It is difficult to recruit, train and oversee talented marketing agents, particularly in an increasingly regulated environment where the US Securities and Exchange Commission continues to impose new requirements on top of all the complexities of immigration laws.

In short, there are too many regional centers already, and most of them – particularly the new ones – have no organization or proven ability to raise EB-5 financing, much less to do so in a timely, cost-effective or reliable way. Immigrant investors prefer records of success, and so do smart developers.

Warning! Forming a regional center means getting into the immigration business

Many developers are being led to form a regional center because of bad advice. This approach should be selected only by those developers who cannot qualify for the “preferred” status or those who genuinely want to get into the immigration business for other reasons. This path should not be chosen to save a few percentage points in the cost of funds or in the mistaken belief that it is an easy path to follow.

Perhaps an example will help. In the heyday of real estate syndications (selling limited partnership interests to raise capital to buy commercial real estate), syndicators often started raising capital among their family, friends and business associates. But as more deals came, and as the capital recruits acquired grew larger, the syndicators usually ended up going to regional brokerage firms to raise their capital. In one sense, the capital was “expensive.” The cost of using such brokerage firms often ranged up to 8% of the offering proceeds. But the use of professional securities salesmen permitted the syndicators to focus on their core business of identifying great real estate investments, adding them under contract, repositioning them, and managing them profitably.

Maybe one syndicator in 1,000 decided to take over the capital raising function by forming a captive brokerage firm. This was really an entirely different business from the core real estate business of the syndicator. It has unique capital requirements, licensing issues, regulatory compliance, liabilities and costs. Most real estate investors were well advised to stay out of the investment banking/capital raising business.

The same considerations apply to a developer looking at EB-5 financing. If the developer cannot qualify for “preferred” status, to a greater or lesser extent the developer may find itself getting into the immigration business. The developer may form a regional center, or will seek to identify regional centers to rent or otherwise cobble together with marketing agents and other complements of the EB-5 capital raising chain. This is a difficult, time-consuming and somewhat risky course to set unless the developer fully understands the nature of the commitment, effort and capital likely to be required. This is not for the faint of heart.

The developer will be competing with a handful of dominant players who have been established for years. They have spent a vast amount of time and money to build their presence in China (and other countries with a significant demand for EB-5 visas), along with their marketing organization, infrastructure, systems, forms and reputation amongst the EB-5 investor community.

A few final words on developers forming their own regional centers

An extraordinarily high percentage of developers who initially believe they want to build their own EB-5 infrastructure will ultimately abandon their path. Although we can help clients pursue this path with any or all of the steps it takes, developers need to understand this alternative involves setting up an entirely new business – the immigration business. It takes a long time to get regional center and project approvals, and even longer to push projects all the way through the EB-5 pipeline so that you can show new investors that all your prior investors got their green cards.

Most of our clients find that it is far better to connect with and rely upon well-established major players in the EB-5 financing chain. We serve as counselors to assist them through this process.

How to get help  evaluating and executing on EB-5 financing.

We have a lot of practical experience in helping our developer clients raise EB-5 funding. If you would like some help to evaluate whether EB-5 could work for you, or what strategy is best for you, then give us a call. There is no cost for an initial discussion.

Jim Butler, +1-310-201-3526 or jbutler@jmbm.com

David Sudeck, +1-310-201-3518 or dsudeck@jmbm.com

For more information about EB-5 financing, including the latest updates, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com, scroll down the right-hand side under LEARN MORE ABOUT and click on “EB-5 Financing” where you will find all the articles on the subject.

For your convenience, here are a few popular EB-5 articles that may be of interest:

EB-5 extended without change: President Donald Trump signs bill

FAQs: Essentials of EB-5 construction financing for developers

EB-5 construction financing term sheet for top developers

More than $1.5 billion of EB-5 construction financing closed for JMBM clients

Are hotels still the darling of EB-5 financing?

The 5 questions every developer is asking about EB-5 financing

Tips to avoid the 6 most common mistakes developers make with EB-5

Why you do NOT want to form your own regional center

What does JMBM do to help with EB-5 construction financing?


This is Jim Butler, author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer, signing off. Please contact us if you would like to discuss any issues that affect your hotel interests or see how our experience might help you create value and avoid unnecessary pitfalls. Who’s your hotel lawyer?

Picture of Jim ButlerJim Butler is a founder of the JMBM law firm and chairman of its Real Estate Department. He founded and chairs the Firm’s Global Hospitality Group® and its EB-5 Finance Group which provide business and legal advice to owners, developers and investors of commercial real estate, particularly hotels, resorts, restaurants, spas and senior living. This advice covers purchase, sale, development, financing, franchise, management, labor & employment, litigation, ADA, IP, and EB-5 matters for such properties.

Jim is recognized as one of the top hotel lawyers in the world and has led the Global Hospitality Group® in more than $87 billion of hotel transactions and more than 3,900 hotel properties located around the globe. They have helped clients with more than 1,000 hotel management agreements, 1,000 hotel franchise agreements and more than 100 hotel mixed-use projects.

JMBM’s EB-5 Finance Group has advised on more than 100 EB-5 projects, closed more than $1.5 billion of EB-5 financing, and sourced more than half of that for our clients. EB-5 Investors Magazine named Jim one of the top 25 EB-5 lawyers in the United States, and Jim serves on the Public Policy Committee of the IIUSA, the EB-5 industry’s trade group for regional centers.

Contact Jim at +1-310-201-3526 or JButler@jmbm.com


Hotels we have worked on over the years. Visit our hotel photo gallery to see some of the more than 3,900 properties around the globe that the hotel lawyers of the Global Hospitality Group® have been involved with, on behalf of our clients. For a more comprehensive list of hotels properties and projects we have worked on, see our Credentials.

Published on:

29 July 2014

Click here for the latest articles on EB-5 Financing. 

 

A viable source of capital and now mainstream

The EB-5 Immigrant Investment Visa program offers an alternative means of raising capital for hotel development projects in the U.S., and the lawyers in JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® and Chinese Investment Group® have worked on more than sixty EB-5 projects all over the United States.

Over just the past 3 years, the EB-5 program has quickly gained the support of some of the largest, institutional-quality developers as well as major hotel brands. Perhaps a bit late, many developers have recently noticed the significant capital being raised through EB-5 and they are scrambling to catch up with those already far down the track.

Looming problem of limited bandwidth

Fortunately, EB-5 capital remains abundantly available. But unfortunately, there is limited bandwidth to tap into it. As a result, the competition of developers for access has become quite intense as they seek to gain the attention of the small number of players with the track record of success to complete their capital raise, and the increasingly discerning EB-5 investors who are much more careful today on who they trust with their immigration visa investment.

Why it is important to gain “preferred” status

Not surprisingly, the hotel developers who will win this race to receive EB-5 funding for their projects will be “preferred” hotel developers in every sense – preferred as to the excellence of the track record and experience of the developer, the quality of the project, the structure of the deal to satisfy EB-5 investor requirements and protect the developer, the experience and relationships with Regional Centers and sales teams, and experienced Counselors to advise on every aspect of the project.

The JMBM Global Hospitality Group® helps high quality developers with great projects achieve this “preferred” status and win the race for EB-5 capital. Some background on which developers and deals will be successful in raising EB-5 capital may be helpful in order to understand the importance of planning, structuring and positioning necessary to obtain the best result. CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

July 9, 2014

LOS ANGELES—The Global Hospitality Group® and the Chinese Investment Group® at Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell LLP are pleased to announce the launch of a Chinese-language version of the Hotel Law Blog. It is available as a new tab on www.HotelLawyer.com or it can be accessed directly at www.ChineseHotelLawBlog.com.

CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

16 June 2014

The growth of outbound Chinese investment

Earlier this month we posted an article about the surge in Chinese investment as reported by Tiffany Hsu in the Los Angeles Times. See, “China and JMBM’s Chinese Investment Group® are in the news again!”

That article prominently featured the Sheraton Gateway LAX hotel, its 15% increase in Chinese travelers since the beginning of the year, and its purchase by our Shenzen Hazens Real Estate Group, and JMBM’s role as counsel to Shenzen Hazens.

Special Report Just Released: Growing Together — China and LA County Report – June 2014

Tiffany Hsu’s article also summarized some of the interesting data from a new report dated June 2014 by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. (LACEDEC), entitled “Growing Together — China and Los Angeles County.” A full copy of LACEDEC’s Growing Together report (the “Growing Together Report” or simply the “Report”) can be downloaded by clicking the link at the end of this article.

But here are the “Key Findings” of the Report:

  • Investment into Los Angeles County from China has doubled over the past 5 years, with China becoming one of Los Angeles County’s top investors
  • China and Los Angeles County continue to increase business and commercial ties and the opportunities for Los Angeles
  • Tourism has nearly quadrupled over the past four years alone, from 158,000 Chinese tourists in 2009 to 570,000 in 2013, making China the top overseas market for Los Angeles tourism
  • Los Angeles is America’s top international trade gateway to China and China’s top gateway to the U.S., handling nearly 45% of trade between the two countries
  • China is the Los Angeles Customs District’s (LACD’s) #1 partner in international trade, accounting for nearly 60% of all activity at the San Pedro Bay ports
  • LACD exports to China have increased from $23 billion in 2009 to $35 billion in 2013 – less waste and scrap and more consumer and knowledge-intensive goods
  • Los Angeles County has the largest Chinese population of any county in the nation, and has grown from 360,000 in 2008 to 413,000 in 2012
  • Los Angeles County has the largest number of Chinese students of any county in the nation, increasing from roughly 3,000 Chinese students studying in local universities in 2009 to roughly 10,000 in 2013
  • Strong cultural and network ties are the foundation of the relationship
  • Future business prospects may be found in clean tech, entertainment, aerospace, e-commerce, real estate/property development, tourism, logistics and electronics.

CONTINUE READING →

Published on:

15 June 2014

Concerns over a real estate bubble in China

For decades, China was referred to as the “sleeping giant.” This reference is to the great potential impact of the country, its vast population, and its economy, but also to the fact that this potential was largely unrealized for hundreds of years. Well, the sleeping giant is awake! And the world financial press is now full of analysts following China and the international ramifications of its every action on the world economy.

Recently, great concern has been raised by some over the impact of the stalling Chinese economy as it drops from double-digit growth in GDP to 7.5% or less. Alarm has been raised about the bubble in the Chine real estate markets, particularly the housing, and now commercial real estate as well. And most recently, financial analysts worry about the shadow banking system (financing and loans by non-banks) and Chinese real estate companies’ interest in purchasing banks or substantial interests in them.

Some suggest that Chinese construction companies’ investments in banks may be with a view to getting easier loans on more questionable deals, and that when real estate projects sour, they could take down both the construction companies and their banks. Is this reminiscent of the S&L crisis and the Japanese bubble of the 1980s?

Let’s separate the issues — real estate company investment in banks and shadow banking

To begin with, one must clearly define the activity being analyzed, who the players are, and the market in which the activity is taking place. For example, current reports detail investments by Chinese real estate development companies in banks located in mainland China, Hong Kong, Australia, the United States, and elsewhere. Some of these investments are modest. Some of them are significant. Some of them appear to be newly capitalized banks with IPOs financed largely by the real estate construction companies (taking the “p” out of “IPO”).

Each country has its unique set of government and regulatory controls. It is difficult to generalize the motivation of the Chinese real estate companies in making banking investments, whether and how they will attempt to deal with the banks they have invested in, and how regulators will respond in each affected jurisdiction as to particular investments and related activities.

Will this be like the Japanese investment bubble of the 1980s or the S&L crisis?

At least two situations may serve as case studies to provide some historical perspective on the new phenomenon of Chinese real estate companies investing in banks, and the shadow banking situation. One is the US real estate bubble of the 1980s followed by the Savings and Loan (S&L) and banking crisis with more bank failures than any time since the Great Depression. The other somewhat intertwined event is the Japanese investment (by banks and related Japanese construction companies) of up to $120 billion in United States real estate (primarily in Hawaii, California, and New York), and subsequently “disinvestment” in the collapse of the early 1990s. Many believe that the Japanese investment was made at what otherwise would have been the peak of the US real estate bubble (carried by loose S&L lending and tax-driven investments that made no economic sense). The Japanese investment propelled the U.S. real estate bubble even higher for several years until the it finally became unsustainable, and collapsed in a worse crash than might otherwise have resulted.

Both the S&L crisis and the Japanese investment phenomena displayed cozy relationships of real estate companies and lenders. The Japanese banks owned significant holdings in their borrower clients, and encouraged them to buy market share with below-market loans. When the real estate market soured, the Japanese banks were hit with the double whammy of huge loans on real estate now worth a fraction of its cost, and stock investments in companies with huge losses. The leverage increased the pain for everyone participating and the lost decade (or two) has followed for Japan.

CONTINUE READING →

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